Damian Lillard's home three-point props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 33.3% overs across 39 games with a brutal -36.4% ROI on overs. His 3.13 home average consistently falls short of the typical 3.5 line, creating sustainable value on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Lillard's home three-point struggles in Milwaukee. His 13-26-0 over/under record represents one of the most lopsided prop trends among elite shooters, with the 0.37-point deficit to the standard line creating consistent value. This isn't simply variance—it's a systematic issue rooted in Milwaukee's home offensive structure and Lillard's role adaptation. At home, the Bucks often control games through interior dominance, reducing Lillard's three-point volume compared to road environments where he's forced into higher usage. The Fiserv Forum's dimensions and sight lines may also factor into his shooting efficiency, as many elite shooters have specific venue preferences that impact their deep ball consistency. The 27.3% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just a recent cold streak but a persistent pattern worth exploiting. With seven consecutive unders representing his longest streak, the market hasn't fully adjusted to this home venue disadvantage. The lack of meaningful over runs (longest just three games) suggests his home three-point output lacks the explosive variance that typically makes overs profitable for volume shooters.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Lillard's home three-point props offer exceptional under value, with his 3.13 average creating a meaningful edge against 3.5+ lines. Target games where Milwaukee faces inferior opponents they can dominate inside, reducing Lillard's three-point necessity. The primary risk is a breakout shooting performance, but his consistent home struggles and the Bucks' interior-focused home approach make unders the superior long-term play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Damian Lillard's three-pointers made props in home games show a 13-26-0 over/under record (33.3% overs) across 39 games. This represents one of the most consistent under trends among star players this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet under on Damian Lillard's three-pointers made in home games. His 3.13 average versus typical 3.5 lines creates clear value, supported by a 27.3% under ROI and systematic home venue disadvantage.
What's Damian Lillard's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Damian Lillard averages 3.13 three-pointers made in home games, falling 0.37 points short of the standard 3.5 line. This consistent deficit has produced profitable under opportunities throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lillard's three-point unders when Milwaukee hosts weaker opponents they can dominate inside. Home games against inferior competition reduce his three-point volume as the Bucks control through interior scoring rather than perimeter shooting.