Damian Lillard's three-pointers made prop shows significant under value in back-to-back situations, hitting under 57.9% of the time with a strong +10.5% ROI. His 3.26 average trails the typical 3.39 line by 0.13 makes per game. LEAN UNDER represents the clear edge here.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a compelling pattern in Damian Lillard's three-point production during back-to-back games that savvy bettors can exploit. Lillard averages 3.26 three-pointers made across 19 back-to-back contests, consistently falling short of the 3.39 line oddsmakers typically set. This 0.13 differential might seem small, but it's created meaningful betting value with under bets generating a solid 10.5% ROI. The 42.1% over rate tells the story clearly - Lillard struggles to maintain his elite three-point volume when playing consecutive nights. Physical fatigue likely plays a role, as the 34-year-old veteran's legs affect his deep shooting rhythm more than younger players. Milwaukee's pace and game script in second games of back-to-backs may also contribute, as the Bucks often manage Lillard's minutes more carefully. The four-game under streak represents his longest dry spell, suggesting the trend has intensified recently. While Lillard remains one of the league's premier three-point shooters, the cumulative effect of back-to-back games creates a measurable dip in his production that the betting market hasn't fully adjusted for.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Damian Lillard's 57.9% under rate in back-to-back games creates legitimate value, particularly given the positive ROI and consistent average shortfall versus the line. Target this spot when Milwaukee plays consecutive nights and the line sits at 3.5 or higher. The main risk is Lillard's elite shooting ability overcoming fatigue in any individual contest, but the sample size supports the trend's persistence.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's 3-Pointers Made prop record back-to-back games?
Damian Lillard goes under his three-pointers made prop 57.9% of the time in back-to-back games, posting an 8-11 over/under record across 19 such contests since joining Milwaukee.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard 3-Pointers Made back-to-back games?
Bet under on Damian Lillard's three-pointers made props in back-to-back games. The under hits 57.9% with +10.5% ROI, while overs lose money at -19.6% ROI.
What's Damian Lillard's average 3-Pointers Made back-to-back games?
Damian Lillard averages 3.26 three-pointers made in back-to-back games, falling 0.13 short of the typical 3.39 line set by oddsmakers, creating consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Damian Lillard three-pointer unders specifically during Milwaukee's back-to-back games when the line is 3.5 or higher, as fatigue consistently impacts his deep shooting volume.