Damian Lillard's three-pointers made prop presents a clear under opportunity with just 39.2% overs across 74 games. His 3.03 average sits 0.28 makes below the typical 3.31 line, generating +16.1% ROI on unders versus -25.2% on overs.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Lillard's transition to Milwaukee disrupting his three-point efficiency. His 3.03 average consistently trails the 3.31 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced volume in the Bucks' system. This isn't a small sample anomaly—74 games provide robust data showing systematic underperformance versus market expectations. The -0.28 differential represents genuine value, not random variance. Lillard's role as a secondary option behind Giannis Antetokounmpo naturally reduces his three-point attempts compared to his Portland days when he was the primary offensive engine. The 39.2% over rate indicates books are pricing his props based on reputation rather than current reality. Milwaukee's pace and offensive philosophy prioritize paint touches over perimeter volume, creating structural headwinds for Lillard's three-point production. The +16.1% under ROI demonstrates this edge has been persistent and profitable. With longest streaks of seven games in both directions, the variance appears manageable rather than wildly unpredictable. This trend reflects a fundamental shift in Lillard's usage rather than temporary shooting struggles.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 39.2% over rate and consistent -0.28 differential below the line create genuine value on unders. Milwaukee's system naturally suppresses Lillard's three-point volume compared to his Portland peak. Target unders when the line sits at 3.5 or higher, as Lillard struggles to reach that threshold consistently. Main risk is potential hot shooting stretches, but the sample size suggests this is more systematic than streaky.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Damian Lillard props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Lillard's three-pointers made prop shows 29 overs and 45 unders across 74 games, hitting just 39.2% overs. He averages 3.03 makes against a typical 3.31 line, missing by nearly three-tenths per game consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet the under on Lillard's three-pointers made props. The 39.2% over rate and +16.1% under ROI provide clear value. His 3.03 average consistently trails the 3.31 line in Milwaukee's system.
What's Damian Lillard's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lillard averages 3.03 three-pointers made across all games, sitting 0.28 makes below the typical 3.31 line. This differential has created consistent under value throughout his Milwaukee tenure with profitable results.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lillard three-point unders when lines reach 3.5 or higher, as he struggles with elevated expectations. His reduced volume in Milwaukee's offense makes inflated props particularly valuable betting opportunities.