Damian Lillard's steals prop shows a clear edge on one day of rest, hitting the over at a 56.2% clip across 32 games with an 18-14-0 record. His 1.12 average significantly outpaces the typical 0.88 line, creating a +0.24 differential that translates to profitable over betting. This represents a lean over opportunity with solid sample size backing.
Expert Analysis
The steals advantage for Damian Lillard on one day of rest stems from his enhanced defensive engagement when properly rested. At 34 years old, Lillard's defensive intensity fluctuates significantly based on energy levels, and the single day of recovery appears to hit the sweet spot where he's refreshed but not rusty. His 1.12 steals average on one day rest versus the standard 0.88 line creates meaningful value, particularly when considering that steals props often carry softer lines due to their volatility. The 7.4% ROI on overs validates this isn't just statistical noise but a genuine edge rooted in Lillard's rest patterns. However, the -16.5% under ROI suggests books haven't fully adjusted, making this trend potentially sustainable. The key driver appears to be Lillard's gambling instincts on defense when he has the energy to anticipate passing lanes, combined with Milwaukee's pace allowing more possession-based opportunities. The five-game over streak capability shows this trend can run hot, while the balanced longest streaks (5-5) indicate reasonable mean reversion patterns that won't kill bankrolls during cold stretches.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 56.2% hit rate combined with the +0.24 average differential creates legitimate value, especially with books seemingly slow to adjust based on the negative under ROI. Target this prop when Lillard is coming off exactly one day of rest against pace-neutral or faster opponents. Primary risk is the inherent volatility of steals props and Lillard's age-related defensive inconsistency, but the sample size and ROI data support continued profitability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's Steals prop record 1 day rest?
Damian Lillard's steals prop on one day of rest shows an 18-14-0 record, hitting the over 56.2% of the time across 32 games. This represents a solid edge over the typical 50% break-even point needed for profitability.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard Steals 1 day rest?
Bet the over on Damian Lillard's steals prop when he has one day of rest. The 56.2% hit rate and +7.4% ROI create legitimate value, especially with his 1.12 average significantly exceeding typical 0.88 lines.
What's Damian Lillard's average Steals 1 day rest?
Damian Lillard averages 1.12 steals per game on one day of rest compared to the typical 0.88 line. This +0.24 differential represents meaningful value and explains the profitable over trend across his 32-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Damian Lillard's steals props specifically when he has exactly one day of rest, preferably against teams that play at neutral or faster pace. Avoid back-to-back situations where his defensive energy typically wanes significantly.