Damian Lillard's assists have cratered over his last 10 games, hitting the over just twice for a brutal 20.0% success rate. Averaging 5.2 assists against a 7.1 line creates a massive -1.9 differential that screams systematic underperformance. The under presents compelling value.
Expert Analysis
Lillard's assist production has fallen off a cliff, and the underlying factors suggest this isn't random variance. The -1.9 differential between his 5.2 average and the 7.1 line represents a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and current reality. This dramatic decline likely stems from Milwaukee's evolving offensive system, where Lillard has shifted from primary facilitator to more of a scoring-focused role alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks' pace and ball movement patterns have changed, reducing Lillard's opportunities to rack up assists consistently. His recent six-game under streak followed by just two overs demonstrates the persistence of this trend. The -61.8% ROI on overs versus +52.7% on unders tells the complete story - books haven't adequately adjusted to Lillard's reduced playmaking role in Milwaukee's system. While regression toward his career norms seems inevitable long-term, the current sample size and underlying role changes suggest this isn't merely a cold streak but a structural shift in how the Bucks utilize their star guard.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 20.0% over rate and -1.9 differential create clear value on the under, particularly when Lillard faces teams that can limit transition opportunities where he generates easy assists. The main risk is books finally adjusting the line downward, eliminating the edge, but until that happens, the systematic underperformance continues to offer profitable spots.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-16 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Lillard has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his assists prop in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of overs. He's averaging 5.2 assists against a typical line of 7.1, creating a significant -1.9 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard Assists last 10 games?
Bet the under on Lillard's assists. The 20.0% over rate and -1.9 average differential create clear value, especially with his reduced facilitating role in Milwaukee's system. The trend shows persistence rather than random variance.
What's Damian Lillard's average Assists last 10 games?
Lillard is averaging 5.2 assists over his last 10 games compared to the typical 7.1 line. This -1.9 differential represents a massive gap that reflects his diminished playmaking responsibilities in Milwaukee's current offensive system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lillard assist unders against defensive teams that limit transition opportunities and force half-court sets. His reduced facilitating role becomes most apparent in slower-paced games where Milwaukee relies more heavily on Giannis as the primary creator.