Damian Lillard's home assists have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 38.5% of overs across 39 games with a brutal -0.6 average differential below the line. The under delivers +17.5% ROI while overs hemorrhage -26.6%, making this one of the season's most reliable fade opportunities.
Expert Analysis
Lillard's assist struggles at home stem from Milwaukee's offensive evolution and his role adjustment alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks utilize Lillard more as a scorer at Fiserv Forum, where his usage shifts toward isolation plays and catch-and-shoot opportunities rather than primary facilitation. Home crowds energize his scoring mentality, leading to more shot attempts and fewer passes. The -0.6 differential below the 7.06 average line isn't marginal variance—it's systematic underperformance driven by tactical deployment. Milwaukee's pace at home tends to favor half-court sets where Lillard operates off-ball more frequently, reducing his assist opportunities compared to transition-heavy road games where he initiates offense. The 15-24 over record represents consistent market mispricing, as books haven't fully adjusted to Lillard's reduced playmaking role in Milwaukee's system. His longest under streak of five games demonstrates the sustainability of this trend, while the brief three-game over streak appears more anomalous. The Bucks' home offensive efficiency actually works against Lillard's assist totals, as teammates convert at higher rates, requiring fewer passes per possession. This isn't a temporary adjustment period—it's Milwaukee's optimal deployment of their star guard in familiar surroundings.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Lillard's home assist props represent systematic market inefficiency, with the under hitting 61.5% of the time while generating positive ROI. The -0.6 differential below the line isn't noise—it's signal reflecting Milwaukee's tactical approach at Fiserv Forum. Target this prop when the line sits at 7.0 or higher, as Lillard's role prioritizes scoring over facilitation in home games. The primary risk is lineup changes or blowout scenarios forcing increased playmaking, but the sample size validates this as a sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-16 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 7.5 | 9.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 16.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's Assists prop record home games?
Lillard is 15-24-0 on assists overs in home games, hitting just 38.5% with an average of 6.49 assists against a 7.06 line. The under has been dominant across 39 games, generating +17.5% ROI compared to -26.6% for overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard Assists home games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Lillard averages 0.6 assists below the line at home, hitting unders 61.5% of the time. Milwaukee's system utilizes him more as a scorer than facilitator at Fiserv Forum, making the under a consistent value play.
What's Damian Lillard's average Assists home games?
Lillard averages 6.49 assists in home games compared to the typical 7.06 line, creating a -0.6 differential. This isn't marginal underperformance—it's systematic, reflecting his reduced playmaking role in Milwaukee's home offensive schemes favoring his scoring ability.
How reliable is this trend?
Target home games when the line is 7.0 or higher, especially against teams that force half-court execution. Avoid back-to-backs or potential blowouts where increased playmaking might be required. The trend is strongest in competitive games where Lillard focuses on scoring.