Cody Martin's steals props present a clear under opportunity with just 40% overs hitting over his last 10 games. Despite averaging 1.0 steals against a typical 0.8 line, the under has delivered +14.6% ROI while overs hemorrhage -23.6%. The current 3-game under streak reinforces this edge.
Expert Analysis
The disconnect between Martin's 1.0 steal average and his poor over rate reveals the fundamental flaw in betting overs on volatile defensive stats. While Martin exceeds his line by 0.2 steals per game, this marginal edge gets crushed by the binary nature of prop betting and likely inflated lines. Steals are inherently unpredictable—even active defenders like Martin can go multiple games without recording one, as evidenced by his 60% under rate. The -23.6% ROI on overs suggests books are setting lines that account for his defensive reputation rather than realistic game-to-game expectations. Charlotte's pace and game script matter enormously for steal opportunities, but without consistent blowouts or uptempo affairs, Martin struggles to hit inflated numbers. His 3-game under streak isn't just variance—it reflects the natural regression from unsustainable defensive production. The 4-game over streak earlier in the sample likely inflated expectations, making current lines beatable on the under side.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with Martin's 60% under rate creates sustainable value despite his slight average edge over the line. Target games where Charlotte faces efficient offenses or slower-paced teams that limit transition opportunities. Main risk is a defensive explosion game that can quickly hit inflated steal totals, but the consistent under performance suggests this edge persists.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cody Martin's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Martin has gone over his steals prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate), going under 6 times. This 4-6-0 record shows consistent under performance despite his defensive reputation and activity level.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cody Martin Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Martin's steals props. The 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI on unders creates clear value, especially with his current 3-game under streak showing natural regression from earlier hot shooting.
What's Cody Martin's average Steals last 10 games?
Martin averages 1.0 steals over his last 10 games against a typical 0.8 line, giving him a +0.2 edge. However, this small average advantage doesn't translate to consistent over hits in the volatile steals market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Martin steals unders when Charlotte faces efficient, half-court offenses that limit transition opportunities. Avoid games against turnover-prone teams or uptempo opponents where steal chances multiply significantly throughout the contest.