Coby White's steals prop at home presents a clear under opportunity with just 37.5% overs across 24 games. His 0.46 average sits 0.1 below typical lines, generating +19.3% ROI on unders versus -28.4% on overs. The data strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
The steals market consistently overestimates Coby White's defensive activity at the United Center, creating a systematic edge for under bettors. His 0.46 home average reveals a player whose steal production doesn't match market expectations, likely due to his role as Chicago's primary offensive initiator limiting his defensive gambling. White's position as a score-first guard means he conserves energy for offensive possessions rather than chasing steals that could lead to transition opportunities for opponents. The 9-game under streak within this sample demonstrates the persistence of this trend, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his actual home steal rates. Chicago's defensive scheme likely emphasizes team concepts over individual steal hunting, particularly for their lead guard who needs to stay disciplined in pick-and-roll coverage. The -0.1 differential between his average and typical lines appears small but becomes significant over volume, especially when combined with the lopsided over/under record. This isn't a player whose steal production spikes in favorable matchups or game situations at home, making the under a consistent play rather than a situational one.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 37.5% over rate and consistent -0.1 differential create a sustainable edge, though the sample size warrants caution against overconfidence. Target this prop when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, as White's 0.46 home average makes the under mathematically favorable. The primary risk is a defensive scheme change or increased minutes that could elevate his steal opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Coby White's Steals prop record home games?
Coby White has gone over his steals prop in just 9 of 24 home games (37.5% rate), with 15 unders creating a clear pattern of market overestimation in Chicago.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Coby White Steals home games?
Bet the under on Coby White's steals at home. His 0.46 average sits below typical lines, and unders have generated +19.3% ROI while overs lose -28.4%.
What's Coby White's average Steals home games?
Coby White averages 0.46 steals per home game, which runs 0.1 below typical prop lines of 0.5 or higher, creating consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Coby White steals unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher at home games, as his 0.46 average creates the strongest mathematical edge in these spots.