Coby White's steals prop offers a clear under edge with just 46.3% overs across 54 games this season. His 0.67 average barely exceeds the typical 0.57 line, creating a modest +0.1 differential that masks poor over performance. The under delivers +2.5% ROI while overs lose -11.6%, making this a lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Coby White's steal production represents a classic case of market inefficiency where the line appears reasonable but consistently overestimates actual performance. His 0.67 average creates the illusion of value when compared to the standard 0.57 line, but the 25-29 over record tells the real story. The Bulls guard's defensive positioning as a smaller backcourt player limits his steal opportunities compared to wings or gambling defenders. White's primary role focuses on offensive creation and spot-up shooting rather than aggressive defensive playmaking. The concerning -11.6% ROI on overs suggests the market hasn't properly adjusted to his actual steal rate, likely influenced by occasional spike games that skew perception. His defensive responsibilities often involve staying attached to shooters rather than jumping passing lanes, which naturally suppresses steal totals. The modest +0.1 differential between average and line appears meaningful but proves insufficient given the frequency of games where White records zero or one steal. Without significant role changes or matchup-driven adjustments, this pattern should persist as White's defensive value comes from positioning and effort rather than opportunistic plays that generate counting stats.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 53.7% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge despite the modest average-to-line differential. White's role as a complementary guard limits aggressive defensive plays that generate steals. Target games where the Bulls face methodical offenses or when White faces bigger matchups that reduce his ability to gamble for steals. Main risk involves random spike games that can occur with any defensive counting stat.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Coby White's Steals prop record all games?
Coby White's steals prop shows a 25-29-0 over/under record across 54 games this season, hitting the over just 46.3% of the time. This translates to unders cashing at a 53.7% rate with a positive +2.5% return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Coby White Steals all games?
Bet under on Coby White's steals props. The 53.7% under rate with positive ROI creates a clear edge, while overs lose -11.6%. His role limits aggressive defensive plays, making the under the superior long-term play despite modest average-to-line differential.
What's Coby White's average Steals all games?
Coby White averages 0.67 steals per game this season compared to the typical 0.57 line, creating a +0.1 differential. However, this modest edge proves insufficient as overs hit just 46.3% of the time with negative -11.6% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Coby White steals unders when the Bulls face methodical, half-court offenses that limit transition opportunities. Also consider unders when White faces bigger guards who reduce his ability to gamble defensively or when he's focused on offensive responsibilities.