Coby White shows clear fatigue on one day rest, hitting overs just 42.9% of the time across 49 games with a concerning -0.8 point differential from his typical line. The under delivers +9.1% ROI while overs bleed -18.2%, creating a sustainable edge.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose production dips meaningfully on minimal rest. White's 18.88 scoring average on one day rest falls nearly a full point below his typical line of 19.72, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for this rest-related decline. This isn't marginal variance—it's a systematic pattern across 49 games spanning multiple seasons. The -18.2% ROI on overs indicates bettors consistently overestimate White's ability to maintain his standard scoring output when playing back-to-back or with minimal recovery time. What makes this particularly compelling is the sustainability factor. Unlike hot shooting streaks or temporary role changes, rest-related performance patterns tend to persist because they're rooted in physical limitations rather than random variance. White's current two-game under streak aligns with the broader trend, though regression toward his rest-disadvantaged mean remains the primary driver rather than any streak momentum. The 9.1% ROI on unders represents genuine value in a market that appears slow to price in fatigue effects for role players like White who carry significant offensive workloads for Chicago.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 42.9% over rate and -0.8 differential create legitimate value on White's under, particularly when he's carrying heavy minutes loads for Chicago. Target this spot when he's played 35+ minutes in the previous game or when facing pace-up matchups that might inflate the line. Main risk is a blowout game script that inflates his usage in garbage time.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 24.5 | 7.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 25.5 | 25.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 23.5 | 37.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 24.5 | 26.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 24.5 | 23.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-02 | OPP | 19.5 | 22.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 18.5 | 23.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 19.5 | 8.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 20.5 | 18.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 17.5 | 24.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 17.5 | 11.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 18.5 | 17.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 18.5 | 18.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 20.5 | 18.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 19.5 | 22.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Coby White's Points prop record 1 day rest?
White goes 21-28 over/under on his points prop with one day rest, hitting overs just 42.9% of the time. This creates a clear under bias across 49 games spanning multiple seasons.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Coby White Points 1 day rest?
Lean under on White's points with one day rest. The 42.9% over rate and -0.8 scoring differential show consistent fatigue impact that the market hasn't fully priced in.
What's Coby White's average Points 1 day rest?
White averages 18.88 points on one day rest compared to his typical line around 19.72. This 0.8-point deficit creates systematic value on the under across his 49-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target White's points under when he played heavy minutes the previous game or faces pace-up opponents that might inflate his line. Avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time could boost his numbers.