CJ McCollum's blocks prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 45.0% overs across 20 games with a negative 14.1% ROI on overs. His 0.65 average barely exceeds the 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders with +5.0% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The blocks market consistently overestimates McCollum's defensive impact at home, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors. As a 6'3" guard who averaged just 0.4 blocks per game over his career, McCollum's defensive positioning focuses on steals and perimeter pressure rather than shot-blocking. The 0.65 home average represents a marginal improvement over his typical output, but the 0.5 line fails to account for natural variance in a low-frequency stat. Blocks are inherently volatile for guards, often dependent on help defense rotations and opponent driving patterns rather than individual skill. McCollum's role in New Orleans emphasizes offensive creation and perimeter defense, not rim protection. The 45.0% over rate across 20 games suggests books haven't properly adjusted this line downward. The current two-game under streak aligns with regression toward his true talent level. Home court advantage typically benefits offensive stats more than defensive counting stats like blocks, making the slight uptick in his home average less meaningful than it appears.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 9-11 over record and -14.1% ROI on overs creates clear value betting unders on McCollum's blocks at home. His guard-centric defensive role and career 0.4 blocks average support continued under performance. Risk lies in potential lineup changes or matchup-specific factors that could increase his help defense opportunities, but the trend shows consistency across a solid 20-game sample.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Blocks Prop Lines
Compare CJ McCollum props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is CJ McCollum's Blocks prop record home games?
McCollum's blocks prop record at home stands at 9-11-0 over/under across 20 games, hitting just 45.0% overs. This translates to a -14.1% ROI for over bettors while under bets generated +5.0% returns during this sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on CJ McCollum Blocks home games?
Bet under on McCollum's blocks at home. The 9-11 over/under record and +5.0% ROI on unders creates clear value, especially given his guard-centric defensive role that limits shot-blocking opportunities compared to the 0.5 line expectation.
What's CJ McCollum's average Blocks home games?
McCollum averages 0.65 blocks per game at home, just 0.15 above the typical 0.5 line. This minimal edge over the betting number explains why overs hit only 45.0% of the time, creating consistent value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target McCollum blocks unders when facing teams with strong perimeter shooting that limit driving lanes. His defensive value comes from steals and perimeter pressure, not rim protection, making blocks props consistently overvalued by sportsbooks at home.