CJ McCollum has demolished assist props with an 8-2 over record in his last 10 games, averaging 5.6 assists against a 4.1 line for a massive +1.5 differential. This 80% over rate with a +52.7% ROI represents a clear edge on the over.
Expert Analysis
McCollum's assist surge reflects his evolution into a true floor general for New Orleans, moving beyond his traditional scoring-first mentality. The +1.5 differential between his 5.6 average and the 4.1 line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his expanded playmaking role. This isn't random variance - McCollum is currently riding a four-game over streak, indicating sustained behavioral change rather than temporary hot shooting creating extra assists. The Pelicans' pace and offensive system clearly favor his distribution, with the team likely running more plays through McCollum as a primary initiator. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency - only two unders in 10 games shows this isn't boom-or-bust performance but steady elevation of his passing frequency. The -61.8% ROI on unders tells the story of a market that's been consistently wrong in one direction. However, regression risk exists if the Pelicans change their offensive approach or if McCollum reverts to his historically score-heavy tendencies, especially in high-pressure situations where he might abandon playmaking for shot creation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. McCollum's 80% over rate and +1.5 line differential represent legitimate value, not just hot shooting luck. The four-game over streak and sustained 5.6 average suggest genuine role expansion rather than temporary variance. Primary risk is regression to his career scoring-first tendencies, but current system usage supports continued playmaking emphasis.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is CJ McCollum's Assists prop record last 10 games?
McCollum has gone over his assists prop in 8 of his last 10 games for an 80% over rate. He's averaging 5.6 assists against a typical 4.1 line, creating a significant +1.5 differential that's generated +52.7% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on CJ McCollum Assists last 10 games?
Lean over on McCollum assists props. His 8-2 record, four-game over streak, and +1.5 average differential above the line indicate genuine role expansion. The 80% over rate suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his increased playmaking responsibilities.
What's CJ McCollum's average Assists last 10 games?
McCollum is averaging 5.6 assists over his last 10 games compared to the typical 4.1 prop line. This +1.5 differential represents significant value, as he's consistently exceeding market expectations by more than one full assist per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target McCollum assists overs when he's in his current playmaking-heavy role with New Orleans. The best opportunities come when the line remains around 4.1 while he's averaging 5.6, especially during his current four-game over streak momentum.