Chet Holmgren's three-point props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI on the over side. The 7-3 under record reflects consistent underperformance against a 1.5 line, averaging just 1.4 makes per game. This presents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Holmgren's three-point struggles reveal a player still finding his rhythm from deep in extended NBA action. The 1.4 average against a 1.5 line represents a meaningful 0.1 differential that compounds over time, particularly damaging when you consider the binary nature of this low number. The 30% over rate isn't just poor luck—it suggests systematic issues with shot selection, defensive pressure, or role adjustments that have persisted across a substantial 10-game sample. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency of the underperformance, with a maximum over streak of just two games compared to a four-game under run. The -42.7% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely already identified this edge, but the persistence suggests underlying factors beyond variance. Holmgren's shot profile may be evolving as teams scout him more thoroughly, forcing tougher looks or different spots on the floor. The rookie wall phenomenon could also be impacting his shooting mechanics and confidence from three-point range, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors until he demonstrates consistent adjustment.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate combined with negative over ROI creates a clear statistical edge that appears sustainable given Holmgren's current shooting struggles. Target this prop when the line remains at 1.5, as books haven't fully adjusted to his recent three-point regression. Primary risk is positive regression to his career averages, but the sample size and consistency suggest this trend has legs for continued under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chet Holmgren's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Holmgren has gone 3-7-0 on three-pointers made overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of overs. This translates to a 7-3 under record with a +33.6% ROI for under bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chet Holmgren 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Holmgren's three-pointers made props. The 70% under hit rate and -0.1 average differential versus the 1.5 line creates sustainable value, especially with his current shooting regression from deep.
What's Chet Holmgren's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Holmgren is averaging 1.4 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, falling 0.1 short of the typical 1.5 line. This consistent underperformance has created a profitable edge for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holmgren three-point unders when the line stays at 1.5, particularly during his current shooting slump. Avoid when books adjust the line down to 1.0, as that eliminates the mathematical edge.