Chet Holmgren's home three-point props present a clear under opportunity with just 40.0% overs hitting across 40 games. The Thunder big man averages exactly 1.52 makes against a typical 1.5 line, generating +14.6% ROI on unders while overs lose -23.6%. This consistent underperformance at home creates sustainable betting value.
Expert Analysis
Holmgren's home three-point struggles stem from Oklahoma City's pace and shot distribution dynamics at Paycom Center. The Thunder's methodical home offense often limits Holmgren's perimeter attempts as they emphasize interior scoring and ball movement. His 1.52 average barely exceeds the standard 1.5 line, but the consistency of underperformance is striking—hitting just 16 overs in 40 attempts represents systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers. The current streak of one under continues a pattern where Holmgren has recorded longer under streaks (up to six games) than over streaks (maximum three). This isn't random variance but reflects his role within the Thunder's home offensive structure. Oklahoma City's defensive identity at home often leads to grind-it-out games where Holmgren focuses more on rim protection and rebounding than perimeter shooting. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates the market consistently overestimates his three-point volume in home settings. Without pace or usage spikes to drive regression, this trend appears sustainable given his defined role and the Thunder's systematic approach to home games.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Holmgren's 40% over rate at home represents genuine value, not a fluke, driven by Oklahoma City's methodical offensive approach at Paycom Center. The +14.6% under ROI demonstrates consistent market mispricing. Target this prop when the line sits at 1.5, especially in games with slower projected pace. The main risk is a blowout scenario forcing increased three-point attempts, but the Thunder's defensive identity makes this unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chet Holmgren's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Holmgren's home three-point props show 16 overs and 24 unders across 40 games, hitting just 40.0% of overs. This 16-24-0 record demonstrates consistent underperformance against the typical 1.5 line, generating -23.6% ROI on overs while unders profit +14.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chet Holmgren 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet under on Holmgren's home three-point props. The 40% over rate and +14.6% under ROI indicate systematic market overvaluation. His 1.52 average barely exceeds the 1.5 line, making unders the clear value play in Oklahoma City's methodical home offense.
What's Chet Holmgren's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Holmgren averages 1.52 three-pointers made in home games, just 0.02 above the standard 1.5 line. This minimal differential explains why unders hit 60% of the time—the market consistently overestimates his perimeter volume at Paycom Center despite his limited role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holmgren under props when Oklahoma City plays at home with slower projected pace. The Thunder's defensive identity and methodical offense at Paycom Center consistently limit his three-point attempts, making 1.5 lines particularly valuable in grind-it-out game scenarios.