Chet Holmgren's steals production on one day rest shows a clear under bias, hitting just 48.7% overs across 39 games with a -7.0% ROI on overs. Despite averaging 0.67 steals against a 0.5 line, the market overvalues his steal potential in this spot, creating consistent under value.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a fascinating disconnect between Holmgren's raw steal average (0.67) and his actual over performance (48.7%) on one day rest. This suggests the market is pricing in his defensive upside without properly accounting for the variance inherent in steal production. Steals are among the most volatile basketball statistics, heavily dependent on opponent pace, game flow, and defensive scheme adjustments. Holmgren's length and anticipation create natural steal opportunities, but the consistency required to consistently exceed even a modest 0.5 line proves elusive. The -7.0% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has identified this inefficiency, while the relatively modest -2.1% under ROI suggests the edge isn't massive but is persistent. The current two-game under streak aligns with the broader trend, though his six-game over streak earlier demonstrates the streaky nature of this prop. Without pace or opponent-specific splits, we must rely on the core sample showing consistent market mispricing of Holmgren's steal floor in back-to-back situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 48.7% over rate combined with negative ROI on overs indicates consistent market overvaluation of Holmgren's steal production on one day rest. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, particularly in slower-paced matchups. The main risk is Holmgren's defensive versatility creating unexpected steal opportunities, but the sample size suggests this edge should persist.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chet Holmgren's Steals prop record 1 day rest?
Holmgren's steals prop on one day rest shows a 19-20 over/under record (48.7% overs) across 39 games from November 2023 to November 2024, indicating consistent under performance relative to market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chet Holmgren Steals 1 day rest?
Lean under on Holmgren's steals with one day rest. The 48.7% over rate and -7.0% ROI on overs shows the market consistently overvalues his steal production in this spot, creating under value.
What's Chet Holmgren's average Steals 1 day rest?
Holmgren averages 0.67 steals on one day rest compared to the typical 0.5 line, creating a +0.2 differential. However, this average masks the volatility that leads to under-performance at just 48.7% overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holmgren steals unders when he's on one day rest, especially at 0.5 lines in slower-paced games. The 48.7% over rate and negative ROI on overs creates the most consistent edge in this specific rest situation.