Chet Holmgren's blocks prop shows a solid 54.5% over rate at home with an 18-15 record, generating +4.1% ROI on overs. His 2.36 average blocks per home game consistently exceeds the typical 2.11 line by 0.25 blocks. This represents a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Holmgren's home blocks advantage stems from several converging factors that create a measurable edge. The 7.1% over rate differential (54.5% vs typical 50% expectation) reflects genuine skill rather than variance, supported by his consistent 2.36 average that beats the standard line. Home court familiarity allows Holmgren to better read opposing offenses and position himself optimally for rim protection. The Thunder's defensive schemes at Paycom Center likely emphasize his shot-blocking role more prominently, with crowd energy and comfortable surroundings enhancing his timing and aggressiveness. The +4.1% ROI on overs demonstrates market inefficiency, as books haven't fully adjusted to his home dominance. However, the modest sample size of 33 games requires caution, and the -13.2% under ROI suggests significant variance when he falls short. The narrow 0.25 block differential means even slight game script changes or foul trouble can flip outcomes. Still, his consistent home performance across this sample period indicates a sustainable edge rather than temporary hot shooting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Holmgren's 54.5% over rate and +0.25 block differential at home represents genuine value that the market hasn't fully captured. The ideal conditions are home games where Oklahoma City projects to play competitive defense without major foul trouble concerns. The primary risk remains the thin margin for error with blocks props, where one missed rotation or early foul trouble can derail the over.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chet Holmgren's Blocks prop record home games?
Chet Holmgren's blocks prop record in home games stands at 18-15, hitting the over 54.5% of the time across 33 games. This translates to a solid +4.1% ROI on over bets while under bets have lost -13.2%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chet Holmgren Blocks home games?
Lean over on Chet Holmgren's blocks props in home games. His 54.5% over rate and consistent 2.36 average that beats the typical line provides medium-confidence value, especially in competitive defensive game scripts.
What's Chet Holmgren's average Blocks home games?
Chet Holmgren averages 2.36 blocks per home game, which consistently exceeds the standard 2.11 line by 0.25 blocks. This differential represents the core edge driving his 54.5% over rate in home contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chet Holmgren blocks overs in home games where Oklahoma City projects competitive defense without major foul concerns. Avoid when he faces foul-heavy matchups or blowout game scripts that limit defensive opportunities.