Chet Holmgren's blocks prop shows a concerning 48.4% over rate (31-33-0) with a -7.5% ROI on overs despite averaging 2.33 blocks against a 2.19 line. The modest +0.14 differential suggests marginal value, but the negative returns indicate books are pricing efficiently. Lean under based on poor over performance.
Expert Analysis
Holmgren's blocks data reveals a classic case where raw averages mislead bettors. While his 2.33 blocks per game exceeds the typical 2.19 line, the 48.4% over rate tells the real story - he's failing to clear his number more often than not. The -7.5% ROI on overs indicates the market has adjusted to his shot-blocking ability, pricing lines that account for his inconsistency rather than just his mean performance. As a rookie big man, Holmgren's block production likely varies significantly based on matchup difficulty, foul trouble, and game flow. His defensive positioning and timing are still developing, leading to feast-or-famine performances that favor the under when books set aggressive lines. The fact that under bets show a much better -1.6% ROI suggests sharper money recognizes this inefficiency. Without favorable splits data to identify optimal spots, the baseline trend favors betting against Holmgren reaching his blocks total, especially when the line approaches or exceeds 2.5 blocks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 48.4% over rate combined with -7.5% ROI on overs indicates the market is efficiently pricing Holmgren's inconsistent shot-blocking. Target unders when the line is 2.5 or higher, particularly against teams with strong interior offensive schemes that could limit his rim protection opportunities. Main risk is a favorable matchup against turnover-prone guards driving into his help defense.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chet Holmgren's Blocks prop record all games?
Holmgren's blocks prop record across all games stands at 31-33-0, hitting the over just 48.4% of the time. This below-average success rate spans 64 games from October 2023 through November 2024, showing consistent struggles to exceed his blocks total.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chet Holmgren Blocks all games?
Bet under on Holmgren's blocks props. The 48.4% over rate and -7.5% ROI on overs indicate the market efficiently prices his inconsistency. Target unders when lines reach 2.5 or higher for optimal value against his developing shot-blocking consistency.
What's Chet Holmgren's average Blocks all games?
Holmgren averages 2.33 blocks per game against a typical line of 2.19, creating a modest +0.14 differential. However, this small edge doesn't translate to profitable overs, as his inconsistent performance pattern favors the under despite the favorable average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holmgren blocks unders when the line is 2.5 or higher, especially against teams with disciplined interior offenses. His current 2-game over streak may present regression value, particularly in back-to-back situations or against physical frontcourts that could limit his mobility.