Chet Holmgren's assists prop with 2+ days rest shows a strong under trend, hitting just 36.4% overs across 11 games with a brutal -30.6% ROI on overs. Currently riding a four-game under streak, this presents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Holmgren struggling to reach his assists line when well-rested. His 2.73 average barely exceeds the typical 2.59 line, creating minimal margin for error in a stat category where variance runs high. The 4-7-0 under record isn't just bad luck—it reflects Holmgren's role as a rim-running big who operates more as a finisher than facilitator, even with extended rest. The current four-game under streak suggests books haven't fully adjusted to this pattern, potentially keeping lines inflated. What's particularly telling is the -30.6% ROI on overs, indicating consistent line value on the under side. With limited playmaking responsibilities in Oklahoma City's system, Holmgren's assist opportunities remain constrained regardless of rest advantage. The Thunder's pace and ball movement hierarchy limit his ceiling, making 3+ assist games more exception than rule. This trend appears sustainable given his defined role, though injury concerns and potential usage changes represent the primary regression risks moving forward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Holmgren's 36.4% over rate with 2+ days rest creates consistent line value, supported by his current four-game under streak. The ideal spot targets standard 2.5 assist lines where his 2.73 average provides minimal cushion. Main risk is Thunder blowouts forcing garbage time playmaking, but his defined role as rim-runner limits ceiling regardless of game script.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Chet Holmgren props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chet Holmgren's Assists prop record 2+ days rest?
Holmgren goes 4-7-0 on assists props with 2+ days rest, hitting just 36.4% overs. His under bets show +21.5% ROI while overs hemorrhage -30.6%, making this one of his most reliable under trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chet Holmgren Assists 2+ days rest?
Bet under on Holmgren's assists with 2+ days rest. The 4-7-0 record and current four-game under streak create clear line value, especially on standard 2.5 lines where his 2.73 average provides minimal cushion.
What's Chet Holmgren's average Assists 2+ days rest?
Holmgren averages 2.73 assists with 2+ days rest compared to typical 2.59 lines, a mere +0.14 edge. This razor-thin margin explains why he fails to hit overs 63.6% of the time in this spot.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holmgren assists unders specifically with 2+ days rest, where he's 4-7-0. Avoid back-to-back games where his usage might spike. Standard 2.5 lines offer the best value given his constrained playmaking role.