Chet Holmgren's assists props on one day rest present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 45.9% overs across 37 games with a devastating 8-game under streak currently active. The 2.54 average barely exceeds typical 2.5 lines, making unders the sharp play.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Chet Holmgren's playmaking limitations when operating on standard rest. His 45.9% over rate on one day rest reflects the reality of his role within Oklahoma City's offensive system, where he functions primarily as a rim-running big rather than a primary facilitator. The current 8-game under streak isn't an anomaly—it's the continuation of a persistent trend where Holmgren struggles to consistently generate assists at the rate books expect. His 2.54 average sits just barely above common 2.5 lines, creating minimal margin for error. The -12.3% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market has overvalued his passing ability in these spots. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Holmgren's defined role alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and other primary ball-handlers. On standard rest, the Thunder's offensive flow typically doesn't require Holmgren to initiate offense from the high post or facilitate extensively. His assist opportunities come mainly from short passes after offensive rebounds or simple handoffs, making his ceiling naturally limited. The lack of meaningful split variations suggests this is a fundamental aspect of his game rather than situational variance.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Holmgren's 8-game under streak and 45.9% over rate on one day rest reflect his limited role as a facilitator in Oklahoma City's system. The -12.3% ROI on overs shows consistent market overvaluation. Target unders when lines sit at 2.5, as his 2.54 average provides minimal cushion. The main risk is an unusually ball-dominant game script, but his defined role makes this unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chet Holmgren's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Chet Holmgren's assists prop record on one day rest is 17-20 over/under (45.9% overs) across 37 games from November 2023 to April 2024, showing a clear under bias with negative ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chet Holmgren Assists 1 day rest?
Bet under on Chet Holmgren's assists props with one day rest. His 45.9% over rate, current 8-game under streak, and -12.3% over ROI make unders the mathematically superior play in this spot.
What's Chet Holmgren's average Assists 1 day rest?
Chet Holmgren averages 2.54 assists on one day rest, just 0.04 above typical 2.5 lines. This minimal differential creates extremely tight margins for overs while providing comfortable cushion for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chet Holmgren under assists when he has one day rest and lines sit at 2.5. His defined role as rim-runner rather than facilitator makes these spots consistently profitable for under bettors.