Chet Holmgren's assists prop presents a strong under opportunity with just 41.7% overs hitting across 60 games. The Thunder center averages exactly 2.5 assists against a 2.5 line, but the under delivers +11.4% ROI while overs lose -20.4%. Lean under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Holmgren's assist numbers reveal the classic trap of a big man prop set too optimistically by oddsmakers. While his 2.5 average perfectly matches the typical line, the distribution heavily favors the under, hitting 58.3% of the time with solid profitability. This pattern reflects Holmgren's role as a rim-running center who occasionally flashes playmaking but lacks consistent creation responsibilities. The Thunder's ball-dominant guards like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey handle primary facilitation, leaving Holmgren with sporadic assist opportunities from post touches and short rolls. His longest under streak of nine games demonstrates how easily he can disappear as a passer when Oklahoma City's offense flows through their perimeter creators. The concerning -20.4% ROI on overs suggests recreational bettors consistently overvalue his playmaking upside, creating sustainable market inefficiency. With limited recent volatility and no concerning regression indicators, this represents a steady grind-it-out under opportunity rather than a boom-or-bust proposition.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Holmgren's assists prop offers consistent value despite the flat 2.5 average, with unders hitting 58.3% of games and delivering +11.4% ROI. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.5, as his role limitations and the Thunder's guard-heavy offense create natural downside. The main risk is an unusually high-usage game where Holmgren sees extended post touches, but his nine-game under streak demonstrates the sustainability of this edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chet Holmgren's Assists prop record all games?
Holmgren's assists prop shows a 25-35-0 over/under record across 60 games, hitting overs just 41.7% of the time. The under has been significantly more profitable, generating +11.4% ROI compared to -20.4% losses on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chet Holmgren Assists all games?
Bet under on Holmgren's assists props. The under hits 58.3% of games with +11.4% ROI while overs lose money at -20.4%. His limited creation role makes the 2.5 line consistently beatable on the low side.
What's Chet Holmgren's average Assists all games?
Holmgren averages exactly 2.5 assists per game, matching the standard 2.5 line perfectly. However, this flat average masks a distribution that heavily favors unders, creating betting value despite the neutral differential.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holmgren's assists unders when the line sits at 2.5, particularly in games where the Thunder's guards are healthy and handling primary creation duties. Avoid when key playmakers are injured and he might see expanded offensive responsibilities.