Cameron Johnson's steals props have been printing money for over bettors, hitting at an 80% clip (8-2-0) over his last 10 games with a massive +0.6 differential above the typical 0.7 line. This 52.7% ROI trend shows Johnson averaging 1.3 steals per game, nearly doubling his prop expectation. Strong lean over.
Expert Analysis
Johnson's steal surge represents a significant shift in his defensive engagement that the market hasn't fully adjusted to. The 1.3 steals per game average against a 0.7 line suggests either increased playing time in defensive situations or a tactical change in Brooklyn's scheme that puts Johnson in more passing lanes. The 80% hit rate over 10 games indicates this isn't random variance—it's a sustainable pattern driven by role or usage changes. The seven-game over streak that dominated this sample shows remarkable consistency, only broken by one recent under. What's particularly compelling is the market's slow adjustment; books are still setting lines closer to Johnson's season average rather than this hot stretch. The risk lies in regression to career norms, as Johnson historically hasn't been a high-steal producer. However, the sample size suggests legitimate changes in his defensive responsibilities or court positioning. Brooklyn's pace and defensive scheme could be maximizing Johnson's steal opportunities, especially if he's playing more minutes at small forward where he can guard perimeter players and jump passing lanes more effectively.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Johnson's 1.3 steals average against the typical 0.7 line creates substantial value, though the recent under snaps his seven-game streak and introduces some caution. The 80% hit rate suggests legitimate role changes rather than pure luck, making overs the play when lines remain around 0.7. Primary risk is regression to career norms, but current form indicates sustainable defensive engagement that books haven't fully recognized.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cameron Johnson's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Cameron Johnson has gone over his steals prop in 8 of his last 10 games (80% hit rate) with only 2 unders. He's averaging 1.3 steals per game during this stretch, significantly outpacing the typical 0.7 line set by sportsbooks.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cameron Johnson Steals last 10 games?
Bet the over on Johnson's steals props. His 1.3 average against 0.7 lines creates substantial value, with an 80% hit rate and +52.7% ROI over the last 10 games indicating a legitimate shift in his defensive role.
What's Cameron Johnson's average Steals last 10 games?
Johnson is averaging 1.3 steals per game over his last 10 contests, nearly doubling the typical 0.7 prop line. This +0.6 differential above expectations has created consistent value for over bettors throughout this hot stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson steals overs when lines remain at 0.7 or below, particularly in games where Brooklyn needs defensive stops. His recent role changes appear sustainable, making these props profitable when books haven't adjusted to his increased steal production.