Brandon Ingram's points prop has been a consistent under play, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -23.6% ROI on the over. Currently riding a five-game under streak, Ingram is averaging 20.9 points against a 21.2 line, creating clear value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose scoring output has been systematically overvalued by oddsmakers. Ingram's 20.9 point average falling 0.3 points short of his typical line suggests either role changes, efficiency struggles, or pace factors working against his scoring ceiling. The current five-game under streak represents his longest cold stretch in this sample, which could indicate either sustainable regression or an overcorrection waiting to snap back. The 14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates consistent line value, but the lack of split data makes it difficult to identify specific game conditions driving this trend. What's particularly noteworthy is the absence of any meaningful over streaks longer than four games, suggesting this isn't simply variance but a fundamental shift in Ingram's scoring patterns. The key question becomes whether this represents a new normal for his offensive role or if we're seeing temporary factors that will eventually correct. Without injury reports or usage rate changes to explain the downturn, bettors must weigh the strength of the recent trend against potential regression to his historical scoring levels.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The five-game under streak and negative differential create clear line value, but the sample size demands caution. Target games where Ingram faces elite perimeter defense or in potential blowout scenarios where fourth-quarter minutes could be limited. The main risk is natural regression breaking this cold streak, especially if his usage rate increases or he finds better shooting rhythm.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 18.5 | 14.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 24.5 | 22.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 20.5 | 7.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 20.5 | 17.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 21.5 | 12.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 21.5 | 24.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 23.5 | 41.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 19.5 | 28.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 21.5 | 26.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 20.5 | 18.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brandon Ingram's Points prop record last 10 games?
Brandon Ingram has gone 4-6 over/under on his points prop in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% overs. He's averaging 20.9 points against lines typically set around 21.2, creating a -0.3 point differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brandon Ingram Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Brandon Ingram's points props. He's currently on a five-game under streak with a 14.6% ROI favoring unders, while overs have produced a brutal -23.6% return. The trend shows clear line value on the under side.
What's Brandon Ingram's average Points last 10 games?
Brandon Ingram is averaging 20.9 points over his last 10 games, which falls 0.3 points short of his typical 21.2 line. This negative differential has created consistent value for under bettors throughout this recent stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brandon Ingram under props when he faces strong perimeter defenses or in games with blowout potential where his fourth-quarter minutes might be limited. His current cold streak makes these situational spots even more valuable for under bettors.