Brandon Ingram's blocks prop has been a consistent under play, hitting just 40.0% overs across his last 10 games with a 4-6-0 record. The under has generated a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have burned at -23.6%. This defensive metric shows clear underperformance against market expectations.
Expert Analysis
Ingram's blocks struggles reflect his evolving role and defensive positioning with Toronto. At 0.6 blocks per game against a 0.5 line, he's barely exceeding the number, but the 40% over rate reveals inconsistent execution. The forward's offensive responsibilities often pull him away from rim protection opportunities, limiting his block potential. His current streak of two consecutive unders aligns with a pattern of defensive passivity that has characterized much of this sample. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates the market has been slow to adjust to Ingram's reduced defensive impact in Toronto's system. Without significant role changes or matchup-specific advantages, this trend appears sustainable. The 14.6% under ROI suggests genuine value exists, particularly given Ingram's focus on offensive creation over defensive disruption. His longest streaks of three games in both directions show some volatility, but the overall lean toward unders reflects a player whose defensive metrics don't match his offensive profile. The lack of split data limits deeper matchup analysis, but the consistent underperformance across various opponents suggests systemic rather than situational factors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Ingram's 40% over rate and strong under ROI of 14.6% indicate sustainable value on the under. His offensive-focused role limits defensive opportunities, and the market appears slow to adjust. Target this prop in standard game scripts where Ingram's offensive duties remain primary, but avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate defensive stats.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brandon Ingram's Blocks prop record last 10 games?
Ingram has gone 4-6-0 on his blocks over/under in his last 10 games, hitting just 40.0% overs. He's averaging 0.6 blocks per game against a typical 0.5 line, showing minimal separation from market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brandon Ingram Blocks last 10 games?
Bet the under on Ingram's blocks prop. The 40% over rate and 14.6% under ROI indicate clear value, while his offensive-focused role consistently limits defensive opportunities and rim protection chances.
What's Brandon Ingram's average Blocks last 10 games?
Ingram averages 0.6 blocks over his last 10 games compared to the standard 0.5 line. This +0.1 differential seems positive but masks inconsistent performance that has produced just 40% overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ingram's blocks under in standard game scripts where his offensive responsibilities remain primary. Avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate defensive stats and disrupt the trend.