Brandon Ingram's blocks prop presents a classic volume-versus-efficiency trap. His 8-10-0 record (44.4% overs) with a 0.78 average against a 0.5 line creates deceptive value perception. The -15.2% ROI on overs reveals the market's awareness of his inconsistent rim protection despite the favorable differential.
Expert Analysis
Ingram's blocks production exemplifies why raw averages can mislead bettors in defensive categories. While his 0.78 average significantly exceeds the 0.5 line, creating an apparent +0.3 edge, the 44.4% over rate exposes the volatility inherent in blocks betting. As a wing player transitioning between forward positions, Ingram's defensive positioning varies dramatically based on Toronto's scheme and opponent personnel. His blocks often come in bunches during specific matchups against slower frontcourts, but disappear entirely when facing perimeter-heavy lineups or when Toronto emphasizes switching defense. The -15.2% ROI on overs suggests the market has correctly priced this inconsistency, making the seemingly attractive average a mirage. Ingram's recent two-game under streak aligns with typical regression patterns after hot stretches. The equal three-game streaks in both directions indicate no persistent edge exists. Without consistent rim protection opportunities in Toronto's system, Ingram's blocks remain highly matchup-dependent and difficult to predict game-to-game.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The market has efficiently priced Ingram's blocks inconsistency despite the attractive 0.78 average. His defensive role varies too dramatically game-to-game to provide reliable betting value. Target unders when Toronto faces perimeter-heavy opponents or when Ingram's positioned away from the rim. The -15.2% over ROI confirms this approach's merit.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brandon Ingram's Blocks prop record all games?
Brandon Ingram has gone 8-10-0 on blocks props in all games, hitting the over just 44.4% of the time. Despite averaging 0.78 blocks per game against a typical 0.5 line, overs have produced a -15.2% ROI while unders show +6.1% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brandon Ingram Blocks all games?
Lean under on Ingram's blocks props. While his 0.78 average beats the 0.5 line, the 44.4% over rate and -15.2% ROI on overs reveal market efficiency. His defensive positioning varies too much for consistent value on the over side.
What's Brandon Ingram's average Blocks all games?
Ingram averages 0.78 blocks per game, creating a +0.3 differential above the standard 0.5 line. However, this favorable average masks significant game-to-game volatility that makes overs a losing proposition at -15.2% ROI over the 18-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ingram blocks unders when Toronto faces perimeter-heavy opponents or faster-paced teams that limit his rim protection opportunities. Avoid betting when he's matched against traditional big men where blocks variance increases significantly and creates unpredictable outcomes.