Brandin Podziemski's three-point props have been crushing under bettors, hitting just 40.0% overs across his last 10 games while averaging 1.2 makes against a 1.3 line. The under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI compared to a brutal -23.6% loss on overs, creating a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Podziemski's three-point struggles reflect the harsh reality of a rookie guard finding his rhythm in Golden State's complex offensive system. His 1.2 average against a 1.3 line represents a meaningful 0.1 differential that compounds over multiple bets. The 40% over rate isn't just bad luck—it suggests the market is still pricing him based on college production or early-season flashes rather than his current role limitations. As a secondary ball-handler behind Stephen Curry and Chris Paul, Podziemski often finds himself creating off the dribble rather than getting clean catch-and-shoot looks that maximize three-point efficiency. His shot selection has been forced at times, leading to contested attempts that naturally convert at lower rates. The Warriors' pace and ball movement can be deceiving—while they generate good looks for stars, role players like Podziemski must often settle for whatever the defense gives them late in possessions. The consistency of this underperformance across 10 games suggests this isn't variance but rather a reflection of his current offensive role and the natural adjustment period for rookies learning NBA spacing and timing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.1 negative differential combined with a 14.6% under ROI creates legitimate value, especially when Podziemski faces length or plays in faster-paced games where shot quality suffers. Target spots where he's likely to see increased defensive attention or when Golden State's offense flows primarily through their veteran stars, limiting his clean looks.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brandin Podziemski's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Podziemski has gone 4-6 on three-point overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40.0% of over bets. He's averaging 1.2 makes per game against a typical 1.3 line, creating a -0.1 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brandin Podziemski 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Podziemski's three-point props. The numbers strongly support it—40% over rate, 14.6% under ROI, and a consistent 0.1 negative differential against the line. This isn't variance; it's a rookie finding his role in a complex system.
What's Brandin Podziemski's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Podziemski is averaging 1.2 three-pointers made over his last 10 games compared to a 1.3 line. That 0.1 differential might seem small, but it represents an 8% edge that compounds significantly over multiple bets, especially with his 40% over rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Podziemski three-point unders when he faces length at the perimeter or in faster-paced games where shot selection suffers. Avoid when Golden State's stars are resting and he sees increased usage, as those spots can inflate his attempt volume unexpectedly.