Bojan Bogdanovic's three-pointers made prop shows clear under value with just 40% overs hitting over his last 10 games. Despite averaging 2.9 makes versus a 2.5 line, the over bets have produced a devastating -23.6% ROI while unders generated +14.6% returns. The data strongly favors under betting.
Expert Analysis
Bogdanovic's three-point prop presents a fascinating case study in why raw averages can mislead bettors. While his 2.9 average suggests easy over value against the 2.5 line, the actual results tell a different story entirely. The Croatian veteran has hit the over in just 4 of 10 games, creating significant negative value for over bettors. This disconnect likely stems from the binary nature of prop betting versus averaging - Bogdanovic appears prone to feast-or-famine performances where he either connects on 4-5 attempts or struggles to reach even 2 makes. His recent shooting patterns suggest inconsistency rather than steady production, with streaky performances that make the under more reliable despite the seemingly favorable average. The 14.6% ROI on unders indicates the market may be overvaluing his three-point consistency based on season-long numbers rather than recent form. Given his age and role fluctuations with the Knicks, this trend appears sustainable as Bogdanovic battles shot selection and rhythm issues that create more volatile game-to-game production than his average would suggest.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% under ROI combined with just 40% overs hitting creates clear value despite the favorable 2.9 average. Bogdanovic's inconsistent three-point performances make the under more reliable than his raw numbers suggest. Target this prop when he faces strong perimeter defenses or in back-to-back situations where his shot selection typically suffers most.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bojan Bogdanovic's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Bogdanovic has gone over his three-pointers made prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate) with a 4-6-0 record. This poor over performance has created significant negative value despite his solid 2.9 average.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bojan Bogdanovic 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Bogdanovic's three-pointers made props. The under has generated 14.6% ROI while overs have lost 23.6%, indicating clear market inefficiency. His inconsistent shooting makes unders more reliable than his average suggests.
What's Bojan Bogdanovic's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bogdanovic averages 2.9 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which is 0.4 above the typical 2.5 line. However, this favorable average masks inconsistent game-to-game performance that makes unders more profitable.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bogdanovic three-point unders against strong perimeter defenses or in back-to-back situations where his shot selection typically deteriorates. His inconsistent shooting patterns make these spots particularly valuable for under betting.