Bojan Bogdanovic's points props present a clear under opportunity with just 40.0% overs hitting across 10 games. The veteran forward averages 17.7 points against an 18.7 line, creating a consistent -1.0 point gap. This trend favors systematic under betting.
Expert Analysis
Bogdanovic's scoring struggles reflect his diminished role in New York's crowded rotation alongside Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, and RJ Barrett. The 40.0% over rate signals books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced offensive burden compared to his Detroit days. His -1.0 average differential isn't marginal variance—it represents a fundamental shift in usage and shot attempts. The four-game under streak earlier in the sample demonstrates how consistently he's fallen short of inflated expectations. At 34 years old, Bogdanovic lacks the explosive scoring bursts that create high-variance outcomes, making his production more predictable. The Knicks' defensive identity and methodical pace further limit his ceiling, as they rarely engage in shootouts that boost individual scoring. Without clear split advantages or situational spots where he exceeds expectations, this appears to be a systematic mispricing. The -23.6% ROI on overs versus +14.6% on unders quantifies the edge perfectly. Books seem anchored to his historical scoring reputation rather than his current reality as a complementary piece.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Bogdanovic's reduced role and the Knicks' system create consistent scoring limitations that books haven't fully recognized. Target unders when his line sits at 18+ points, especially in lower-total games where pace works against him. The primary risk is a random hot shooting night, but his 40.0% over rate suggests these are infrequent enough to maintain profitability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 13.5 | 22.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 17.5 | 11.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 17.5 | 26.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 18.5 | 17.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 19.5 | 17.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 19.5 | 15.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 19.5 | 14.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 19.5 | 23.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 22.5 | 8.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 19.5 | 24.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bojan Bogdanovic's Points prop record all games?
Bogdanovic has gone over his points total in just 4 of 10 games (40.0%) while going under 6 times. His under record shows a clear pattern of falling short of bookmaker expectations consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bojan Bogdanovic Points all games?
Bet under on Bogdanovic's points props. His 40.0% over rate and -1.0 average differential create a systematic edge, particularly when his line exceeds 18 points in the Knicks' defensive system.
What's Bojan Bogdanovic's average Points all games?
Bogdanovic averages 17.7 points per game against a typical line of 18.7, creating a -1.0 differential. This gap represents his diminished offensive role compared to his previous higher-usage situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bogdanovic unders when his line sits at 18+ points, especially in games with lower totals where pace works against individual scoring. Avoid in potential shootouts or when he's coming off rest.