Bennedict Mathurin's three-pointers made props present a clear under bias with just 46.2% overs across 13 games. Despite averaging 1.92 makes against a 1.35 line, the over's -11.9% ROI reveals consistent line inflation. The under trend offers sustainable value.
Expert Analysis
Mathurin's three-point props showcase a classic case of market overcorrection based on raw averages rather than betting outcomes. While his 1.92 makes per game significantly exceeds the typical 1.35 line, this 0.6 differential hasn't translated to profitable overs, generating a brutal -11.9% ROI for over bettors. The 46.2% over rate suggests books are setting lines that account for his shooting upside but may be overestimating consistency. Young players like Mathurin often experience volatile three-point performances as they adjust to NBA spacing and defensive schemes. The fact that he's hit streaks of four overs and four unders indicates his shot selection and rhythm vary significantly game-to-game. With Indiana's pace and offensive system potentially creating inflated volume expectations, the market appears to be pricing in best-case scenarios rather than typical outcomes. The under's modest +2.8% ROI, while not spectacular, represents sustainable value in a prop category where consistency matters more than ceiling games. Mathurin's current one-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern of regression following hot shooting stretches.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 53.8% under rate combined with positive ROI indicates the market consistently overvalues Mathurin's three-point consistency. Target this prop when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, as his 1.92 average masks significant game-to-game variance. Primary risk involves hot shooting stretches where volume and efficiency align, but the overall trend favors disciplined under betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 7.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bennedict Mathurin's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Mathurin has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 6 of 13 games (46.2%) this season. His under record stands at 7-6, showing a slight but consistent edge toward lower three-point totals than the market expects.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bennedict Mathurin 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean under on Mathurin's three-pointers made props. The 53.8% under rate and positive +2.8% ROI provide a sustainable edge, while overs have lost -11.9% despite his solid 1.92 average per game.
What's Bennedict Mathurin's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Mathurin averages 1.92 three-pointers made per game against a typical line of 1.35, creating a +0.6 differential. However, this average masks significant variance that has made overs unprofitable despite the favorable numbers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mathurin three-point unders when lines reach 1.5 or higher, especially after strong shooting games when the market may overreact. His streaky nature and young player inconsistency create the best under opportunities at inflated numbers.