Bennedict Mathurin's points props show clear value on the under side with a 4-6-0 record (40% overs) over his last 10 games. Despite averaging 16.9 points against a 14.9 line, the under delivers +14.6% ROI while overs lose -23.6%. This presents a compelling fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The disconnect between Mathurin's 16.9 scoring average and his poor over performance reveals a classic betting trap. While he's exceeding his line by 2.0 points per game, the 40% over rate suggests oddsmakers are consistently overvaluing his ceiling. This pattern typically emerges when a young player shows flashes of brilliance that inflate expectations, but lacks the consistency to hit elevated numbers regularly. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates the market is pricing in his upside without properly accounting for his floor games. Mathurin's role as a secondary scorer means his production heavily depends on game flow and matchup dynamics. When the Pacers build leads or face defensive-minded opponents, his shot attempts can disappear quickly. The current under streak of one game follows a pattern where he alternates between explosive performances and quiet nights. The key concern is that his 16.9 average still beats the line, suggesting either the sample includes several massive outliers or the line has been artificially depressed. However, the consistent under profitability indicates sharp money recognizes his volatility better than the public, who likely chase his highlight-reel performances.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +14.6% under ROI combined with the 60% under hit rate creates legitimate value despite Mathurin beating his average line. Target games where Indiana faces strong perimeter defense or when he's coming off a high-scoring performance that might inflate the next line. The main risk is his 2.0-point positive differential eventually regressing toward the mean, but his inconsistent role suggests continued under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 8.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 38.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 17.5 | 16.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 15.5 | 34.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 15.5 | 14.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 13.5 | 9.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-21 | OPP | 14.5 | 19.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-14 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 14.5 | 9.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bennedict Mathurin's Points prop record last 10 games?
Mathurin has gone 4-6-0 on points overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. Despite this poor over record, he's averaging 16.9 points against a 14.9 average line, creating a 2.0-point positive differential that doesn't translate to betting success.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bennedict Mathurin Points last 10 games?
Bet under on Mathurin's points props. The under side has generated +14.6% ROI with a 60% hit rate over 10 games, while overs lose -23.6%. His inconsistent scoring role makes the under the sharper play despite beating his line average.
What's Bennedict Mathurin's average Points last 10 games?
Mathurin averages 16.9 points over his last 10 games against a 14.9 average line, giving him a +2.0 differential. However, this positive average hasn't translated to over betting success, with overs hitting just 40% of the time and losing -23.6% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mathurin under bets when Indiana faces strong perimeter defenses or after his high-scoring games that might inflate the next line. His secondary scoring role creates game-flow dependency, making unders most valuable in defensive matchups or blowout scenarios.