Austin Reaves has hit the over on his three-pointers made prop in 57.6% of home games (19-14 record), averaging 2.24 makes against a typical 2.02 line. The +0.2 differential and strong 9.9% ROI on overs suggests consistent home court advantage for his perimeter shooting.
Expert Analysis
Austin Reaves demonstrates a clear home court shooting advantage that creates genuine betting value on his three-point props. The 57.6% over rate isn't just noise—it reflects measurable environmental factors that boost his perimeter accuracy. Home games provide Reaves with familiar sight lines, consistent shooting backgrounds, and crowd energy that elevates his confidence on catch-and-shoot opportunities. The Lakers' offensive system at Crypto.com Arena allows Reaves more structured looks, particularly in transition and off LeBron James drives where he finds open corners. His 2.24 home average significantly outpacing the standard 2.02 line indicates oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to this split. The consistency is notable—while he's experienced streaks both ways, the underlying trend remains robust across different matchups and game situations. Reaves shoots with better rhythm at home, taking higher-quality attempts rather than forcing contested shots. The 9.9% ROI on overs validates this isn't just statistical variance but a sustainable edge rooted in his comfort level and role within the Lakers' home offensive schemes. However, the -19.0% under ROI warns against blindly backing overs, as his ceiling games can inflate averages while his floor remains concerning for bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 57.6% over rate and positive home differential create legitimate value, but the moderate edge requires selective timing. Target games against faster-paced opponents or teams that struggle defending the perimeter, where Reaves gets additional clean looks. Main risk is his inconsistent floor—he can disappear for stretches when the Lakers offense stagnates.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 9.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Austin Reaves's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Austin Reaves has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 19 of 33 home games (57.6%), generating a 9.9% ROI for over bettors while under bettors faced -19.0% returns, demonstrating clear home court value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Austin Reaves 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean over on Austin Reaves three-pointers made props at home, but be selective. Target games against pace-up opponents or poor perimeter defenses where he'll see additional clean looks beyond his 2.24 average.
What's Austin Reaves's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Austin Reaves averages 2.24 three-pointers made in home games compared to typical lines around 2.02, creating a +0.2 differential that represents genuine value for over bettors in the right spots.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities arise against faster-paced teams or poor perimeter defenses at home, where Reaves gets extra catch-and-shoot looks. Avoid back-to-back situations or games where Lakers may rest key playmakers.