Austin Reaves has delivered exceptional over value on his three-pointers made prop, hitting the over in 37 of 64 games (57.8%) while averaging 2.27 makes against a 1.98 line. The +0.3 differential and 10.4% over ROI represent a clear market inefficiency worth targeting.
Expert Analysis
The Lakers guard has consistently outperformed his three-point prop lines, creating one of the more reliable over trends in the NBA. Reaves averages 2.27 made threes against a typical 1.98 line, indicating oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to his expanded role and improved shooting efficiency. His 57.8% over rate isn't just variance—it reflects genuine market mispricing of a player who transformed from role player to legitimate offensive weapon. The +10.4% ROI on overs demonstrates sustained profitability across a meaningful 64-game sample. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency factor. Reaves has shown the ability to string together over performances, with his longest over streak reaching six games compared to just three consecutive unders. This suggests his three-point volume and efficiency have found a sustainable floor that the betting market hasn't fully recognized. The Lakers' offensive system increasingly runs through Reaves as a secondary creator, naturally generating more catch-and-shoot opportunities. Without concerning regression indicators or dramatic role changes on the horizon, this represents a market correction still in progress rather than a trend nearing exhaustion.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Reaves has consistently beaten his three-point lines with a meaningful edge that oddsmakers haven't corrected. The 57.8% over rate and positive differential create betting value, particularly when the line sits at 1.5 or 2.5. Main risk is potential role changes if the Lakers acquire additional offensive weapons, but current usage patterns support continued over performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-04-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 9.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Austin Reaves's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Austin Reaves has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 37 of 64 games (57.8%) while going under 27 times. This translates to a profitable 10.4% return on investment for over bettors across the sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Austin Reaves 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet the over on Austin Reaves three-pointers made props. His 57.8% over rate and +0.3 average differential above the line create consistent value, especially when the number sits at 1.5 or 2.5 makes.
What's Austin Reaves's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Austin Reaves averages 2.27 three-pointers made per game against a typical line of 1.98. This +0.3 differential represents significant value, as he consistently outperforms oddsmakers' expectations by nearly a full shot attempt per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Austin Reaves three-point overs when the line is set at 1.5 or 2.5, as these numbers provide the best value given his 2.27 average. His expanded role as a secondary creator makes him particularly reliable in games requiring offensive output.