Anthony Edwards has been a steal prop goldmine for under bettors, going 2-8 O/U with a brutal -61.8% ROI on overs. Currently riding an 8-game under streak while averaging just 1.0 steals against a 1.5 line. This represents a clear systemic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Edwards's steal production has fallen off a cliff over this 10-game stretch, creating one of the most reliable under trends in the NBA. The 1.0 average against a 1.5 line represents a massive 33% gap that books haven't adequately adjusted for. This isn't just variance - Edwards is averaging 0.5 steals below his line consistently, suggesting either a role change, defensive scheme adjustment, or conditioning issue. The 8-game under streak is particularly telling, as it indicates a sustained shift rather than random fluctuation. What makes this trend especially valuable is the consistency - Edwards isn't alternating between 0 and 3 steals, he's consistently landing in that 0-1 range that keeps him under. The -61.8% ROI on overs shows books are still pricing him as the aggressive defender from earlier seasons. However, the sample size of 10 games, while significant, isn't massive enough to ignore potential regression. The key question is whether this represents a permanent shift in Edwards's defensive approach or a temporary slump that could correct quickly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Edwards's 1.0 average creates a 0.5 cushion against the 1.5 line, while the 8-game under streak shows remarkable consistency. The ideal spot is when the line stays at 1.5 or higher, as books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced steal production. Main risk is sample size - 10 games could represent temporary variance rather than a true skill shift.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Edwards's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Edwards has gone 2-8 O/U on his steals prop over the last 10 games, hitting the over just 20% of the time. This represents one of the worst over rates for any major prop bet during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Edwards Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Edwards steals props. He's averaging 1.0 steals against a typical 1.5 line, creating a 0.5 cushion, and is currently on an 8-game under streak with strong mathematical backing.
What's Anthony Edwards's average Steals last 10 games?
Edwards is averaging exactly 1.0 steals over his last 10 games, which is 0.5 below the standard 1.5 line. This 33% gap between production and expectation creates significant value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Edwards steals unders when the line is 1.5 or higher, especially in games where Minnesota faces high-pace opponents where his energy might be focused more on offensive production than defensive disruption.