Anthony Edwards on one day of rest presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 46.4% of his overs across 56 games with an average of 25.7 points against typical lines around 27.3. The -1.6 point differential and positive 2.3% ROI on unders signals consistent value betting against inflated expectations.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a compelling pattern: Edwards consistently underperforms his points total when operating on one day of rest, a scenario that occurs frequently in the NBA's compressed schedule. His 25.7 point average falls 1.6 points below typical market expectations, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for this rest pattern's impact on his scoring output. The 46.4% over rate across 56 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the positive ROI on unders indicates the market consistently overvalues Edwards in this specific situation. This trend likely stems from the physical and mental adjustment period following a game, where Edwards may experience slight fatigue or rhythm disruption that impacts his aggressive scoring approach. The Timberwolves' offensive flow often depends on Edwards creating his own shots, and even marginal decreases in explosiveness can significantly impact his point totals. Most importantly, the market appears slow to recognize this pattern, creating ongoing value for disciplined under bettors who can identify when Edwards is playing on exactly one day of rest.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.6-point negative differential and 53.6% under rate provide solid mathematical foundation for betting against Edwards' points props on one day rest. Target games where his line sits at 26.5 or higher for maximum value. Primary risk involves small sample variance and potential market correction as this trend becomes more recognized.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-01 | OPP | 27.5 | 34.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-30 | OPP | 27.5 | 25.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-16 | OPP | 27.5 | 41.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-14 | OPP | 24.5 | 28.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-03 | OPP | 31.5 | 21.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-20 | OPP | 26.5 | 32.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 26.5 | 15.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-31 | OPP | 23.5 | 20.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 25.5 | 14.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 24.5 | 26.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-26 | OPP | 27.5 | 29.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 24.5 | 13.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 26.5 | 14.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 26.5 | 51.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 26.5 | 26.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Edwards's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Anthony Edwards is 26-30 on points overs when playing on one day of rest, hitting just 46.4% across 56 games. This translates to unders cashing 53.6% of the time with a positive 2.3% ROI for disciplined bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Edwards Points 1 day rest?
Bet under on Edwards' points props when he's playing on one day rest. The 1.6-point negative differential and 53.6% under rate provide consistent value, especially when his line is set at 26.5 or higher.
What's Anthony Edwards's average Points 1 day rest?
Edwards averages 25.7 points on one day rest, which is 1.6 points below his typical market line of around 27.3. This consistent gap creates ongoing value for under bettors who track rest patterns.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Edwards points unders specifically on one day rest when his line exceeds 26.5 points. Avoid betting overs in this situation given the negative 11.4% ROI and strong historical underperformance pattern.