Anthony Davis has been a consistent under performer on three-pointers made at home, hitting the over just 25.0% of the time (7-21 record). His 0.32 average falls significantly short of the typical 0.5 line, creating a clear edge for under bettors with +43.2% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Anthony Davis's three-point struggles at Crypto.com Arena. His 25.0% over rate represents one of the most reliable under trends in the NBA, with Davis averaging just 0.32 made threes per home game against a standard 0.5 line. This isn't random variance—it reflects Davis's fundamental role as an interior player who occasionally steps out rather than a consistent perimeter threat. The Lakers' offensive system emphasizes getting Davis touches in the paint where he's most effective, and at home where the team typically controls pace and game flow, there's less desperation shooting that might inflate his three-point attempts. His longest under streak of seven games demonstrates the persistence of this pattern, while even his longest over streak maxed out at just three games. The -0.2 differential between his average and the line might seem small, but it's massive in prop betting terms. Davis's three-point shooting at home appears tied to his role rather than shooting ability, making this trend less susceptible to positive regression. The Lakers don't need Davis shooting threes at home—they need him dominating inside, which explains why this pattern has held so consistently across 28 games.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Davis's 25.0% over rate at home isn't a slump—it's his identity. The Lakers maximize his interior presence at Crypto.com Arena, keeping him away from the perimeter except in specific situations. With a -0.2 average-to-line differential and +43.2% under ROI, this represents premium value. The main risk is garbage time threes in blowouts, but even those haven't materialized consistently enough to derail this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Davis's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Anthony Davis has gone under his three-pointers made prop in 21 of 28 home games (75.0% under rate) for a 7-21-0 overall record. His consistent failure to reach even modest lines like 0.5 makes this one of the NBA's most reliable under trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Davis 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Davis's 25.0% over rate at home reflects his interior-focused role rather than poor shooting luck. The Lakers maximize his paint presence at Crypto.com Arena, making under bets consistently profitable at +43.2% ROI.
What's Anthony Davis's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Davis averages 0.32 three-pointers made per home game, falling 0.2 short of the typical 0.5 line. This significant gap isn't close—it represents the difference between an occasional three-point shooter and someone who rarely attempts them from home.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis three-point unders in home games where the Lakers are favored and expected to control pace. Avoid road games or potential shootouts where desperation might force more perimeter attempts, but home games offer the cleanest betting environment for this trend.