Anthony Davis steals props present a clear under opportunity with just 47.2% overs hitting over 53 games. His 1.26 average barely exceeds the typical 1.18 line, generating positive ROI on unders while overs bleed -9.9%. The data strongly favors betting under on Davis steals.
Expert Analysis
Anthony Davis's steal production reveals a consistent pattern of underperformance against inflated lines. At 1.26 steals per game versus a 1.18 average line, Davis provides just 0.08 steals of value—a razor-thin margin that translates to sustainable under betting. The 47.2% over rate across 53 games represents a meaningful sample size, not random variance. Davis's role as a rim protector limits his steal opportunities compared to perimeter defenders. His positioning in drop coverage and help defense generates blocks and altered shots rather than deflections and steals. The Lakers' defensive scheme emphasizes Davis anchoring the paint while guards and wings handle ball pressure. This structural limitation makes his steal totals more predictable and less volatile than traditional counting stats. Books consistently overvalue his defensive reputation, setting lines that assume more aggressive perimeter play than his actual role demands. The modest 0.08 average differential might seem insignificant, but it compounds over volume. Davis's steal production lacks the explosive upside that creates profitable over opportunities, instead offering steady, grind-it-out under value. His longest under streak of four games demonstrates the consistency of this pattern, while the longest over streak of just three games shows limited ceiling potential.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 47.2% over rate and positive under ROI create a sustainable edge, though the small 0.08 differential prevents this from being a high-conviction play. Davis's rim-protecting role naturally limits steal opportunities, making unders the preferred side. Target games where the line sits at 1.5, as the half-point buffer maximizes value on his 1.26 average.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 7.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Davis's Steals prop record all games?
Anthony Davis has gone over his steals prop in 25 of 53 games (47.2%) this season. His under record stands at 28-25, showing consistent value on the under side with a positive 0.9% ROI compared to -9.9% on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Davis Steals all games?
Bet under on Anthony Davis steals props. The 47.2% over rate and his 1.26 average against typical 1.18 lines create sustainable under value. His rim-protecting role naturally limits steal opportunities, making unders the preferred long-term strategy.
What's Anthony Davis's average Steals all games?
Anthony Davis averages 1.26 steals per game this season, just 0.08 above the typical 1.18 line. This minimal differential favors under betting, as his actual production barely exceeds the market expectation despite his defensive reputation.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Anthony Davis steals unders when lines are set at 1.5, maximizing the half-point buffer on his 1.26 average. Avoid games where he faces high-pace opponents or when the Lakers employ more aggressive defensive schemes that could increase his perimeter activity.