Anthony Davis blocks props on one day rest present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 38.9% overs across 36 games with a devastating -0.3 differential versus the betting line. The Lakers big man consistently falls short of inflated expectations in back-to-back situations, making the under the sharp play.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Anthony Davis and blocks props on minimal rest. His 1.89 average falls significantly short of the typical 2.22 line, creating consistent value on unders with a healthy 16.7% ROI. This isn't coincidental — Davis's defensive intensity and rim protection naturally decline when playing consecutive nights, as fatigue impacts his timing and vertical leap. The Lakers' pace tends to slow in back-to-back scenarios, reducing overall possessions and shot-blocking opportunities. Davis also sees slightly reduced minutes in these spots as the Lakers manage his workload, particularly late in games where blocks typically accumulate. The concerning -25.8% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market overvalues his shot-blocking ability in these situations. His current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, and the eight-game under streak earlier this season shows how persistent these trends can be. The lack of meaningful positive regression over 36 games suggests this is a legitimate edge rather than variance. Davis's blocks props appear systematically overpriced when he's playing on one day rest, creating a sustainable betting angle for sharp players.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Davis consistently underperforms his blocks line on one day rest, averaging 1.89 versus a 2.22 line with strong 16.7% under ROI. The fatigue factor appears real and sustainable across a solid 36-game sample. Main risk is a potential pace-up game or Davis getting extra motivated against elite centers, but the data strongly favors the under in most scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Davis's Blocks prop record 1 day rest?
Anthony Davis has gone 14-22 on blocks overs with one day rest, hitting just 38.9% over a 36-game sample from November 2023 to April 2024. This represents a clear underperformance against market expectations with consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Davis Blocks 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Davis blocks props with one day rest. He averages 1.89 blocks versus typical 2.22 lines, showing 16.7% under ROI compared to -25.8% over ROI. The fatigue factor creates legitimate value on unders.
What's Anthony Davis's average Blocks 1 day rest?
Davis averages 1.89 blocks on one day rest compared to typical betting lines around 2.22, creating a significant -0.3 differential. This consistent underperformance versus market expectations has generated profitable under opportunities across 36 tracked games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis blocks unders specifically on one day rest situations where fatigue impacts his rim protection. Avoid betting when he faces elite offensive centers who might motivate extra effort, but the general trend strongly favors unders in back-to-back scenarios.