Anthony Davis's assists prop in away games presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 46.4% overs across 28 games with a concerning -11.4% ROI on the over side. Davis averages 3.39 assists against typical 2.96 lines, but the consistent under performance suggests value lies with the under despite the positive differential.
Expert Analysis
The Anthony Davis assists away trend reveals a fascinating disconnect between production and betting outcomes. While Davis averages 3.39 assists on the road against 2.96 lines—a healthy +0.43 differential—the over has been a consistent loser with just 13 wins in 28 attempts. This suggests sportsbooks are setting lines that account for Davis's ceiling rather than his median performance. The Lakers' road struggles often force Davis into more individual scoring roles, reducing his playmaking opportunities as the offense becomes more isolation-heavy. His assist production becomes even more volatile away from home, where the Lakers face hostile crowds and tighter defensive schemes that limit his comfort level as a facilitator. The -11.4% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has already identified this inefficiency, while the modest +2.3% under ROI shows sustainable value. Davis's recent two-game over streak shouldn't overshadow the longer pattern—he's recorded five consecutive unders as recently as this season, demonstrating the volatility that makes overs unreliable. The Lakers' road pace and offensive rhythm consistently work against Davis reaching inflated assist totals, making this a structural edge rather than temporary variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 46.4% over rate combined with negative ROI on overs creates sustainable value on the under side despite Davis's production exceeding typical lines. Target this spot when the Lakers face elite defensive teams on the road, where Davis will focus more on scoring than facilitating. The main risk is Davis having an unusually active playmaking game, but the season-long pattern suggests this is the exception rather than the rule.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 11.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Davis's Assists prop record away games?
Anthony Davis has gone over his assists prop in just 13 of 28 away games (46.4% rate) this season, with the over producing a -11.4% ROI while unders show +2.3% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Davis Assists away games?
Lean under on Davis assists props in away games. The 46.4% over rate and negative ROI on overs creates value on the under side despite his solid 3.39 average production.
What's Anthony Davis's average Assists away games?
Davis averages 3.39 assists in away games, which is +0.43 above typical 2.96 lines. However, this positive differential hasn't translated to profitable over betting due to inconsistent ceiling games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis assists unders when the Lakers play elite defensive teams on the road. These spots maximize the structural advantages that have made overs unprofitable throughout the season.