Anfernee Simons shows a solid 60% over rate on three-pointers made with 2+ days rest, going 6-4 across 10 games with a +14.6% ROI on overs. Despite averaging slightly below the 3.3 line at 3.0 makes, the consistent over performance suggests value on the over side.
Expert Analysis
The 60% over rate for Anfernee Simons on extended rest reveals an intriguing pattern that defies the surface-level average. While Simons averages 3.0 three-pointers made against a typical 3.3 line, the consistent over performance suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his rest-advantage profile. Extended rest likely benefits Simons's shot selection and rhythm, as three-point shooting is heavily dependent on legs and timing. The Trail Blazers' pace and offensive system may also favor higher shot volumes when Simons is fresh, particularly given his role as a primary offensive initiator. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates sustainable value, while the brutal -23.6% under ROI suggests books are setting lines that consistently underestimate his rested performance. However, the small 10-game sample creates volatility risk, and Simons's streaky shooting nature means variance can swing results quickly. The current two-game over streak aligns with the broader trend, but regression remains possible. Portland's offensive efficiency and game script will heavily influence whether Simons reaches the volume needed to clear these totals, making matchup context crucial for individual game decisions.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% over rate and positive ROI suggest books haven't properly adjusted Simons's three-point lines for extended rest situations. The key edge lies in his improved rhythm and shot selection when fresh, despite the slightly lower average. Target overs in favorable matchups against teams that push pace or struggle defending the perimeter, but avoid in potential blowout scenarios where fourth-quarter minutes could disappear.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's 3-Pointers Made prop record 2+ days rest?
Anfernee Simons has gone 6-4 on three-pointers made overs with 2+ days rest, hitting a 60% over rate across 10 games. This translates to a solid +14.6% ROI on over bets in these extended rest situations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Lean over on Anfernee Simons three-pointers made with 2+ days rest. The 60% over rate and positive ROI suggest books haven't adjusted properly for his improved performance when fresh, creating betting value despite the lower average.
What's Anfernee Simons's average 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Anfernee Simons averages 3.0 three-pointers made with 2+ days rest, which sits 0.3 below the typical 3.3 line. However, his 60% over rate suggests he frequently exceeds expectations despite the slightly lower average performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Anfernee Simons three-pointers overs in uptempo matchups against defensively weak perimeter teams when he has 2+ days rest. Avoid potential blowout games where reduced fourth-quarter minutes could limit his shot attempts and clearing opportunities.