Anfernee Simons presents a marginal edge on three-pointers made at home with a 53.6% over rate (15-13 record) across 28 games. While his 3.36 average exactly matches typical lines, the +2.3% ROI on overs and current four-game over streak suggest slight upward momentum. Lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Anfernee Simons's home three-point prop reveals a player finding his rhythm in familiar surroundings, though the edge is admittedly thin. The 53.6% over rate might seem modest, but it represents consistent value when combined with the positive 2.3% ROI on overs versus the brutal -11.4% return on unders. This differential suggests the market slightly undervalues Simons's home shooting ability. The current four-game over streak indicates he's locked in from deep, likely benefiting from Portland's pace and his increased usage as a primary offensive weapon. What makes this trend compelling is the sustainability factor - Simons averages exactly 3.36 makes against a 3.36 line, meaning he's not dramatically outperforming expectations but consistently meeting them at home. The Moda Center's shooter-friendly dimensions and crowd energy appear to provide just enough boost to tip close attempts. However, the lack of significant splits data means we're betting on feel and recent form rather than concrete situational advantages. The trend's persistence over 28 games suggests legitimate home court benefit rather than random variance, but the margin for error remains razor-thin.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Simons's 53.6% home over rate and positive ROI indicate genuine value, especially during his current hot streak. The key is selectivity - target games where Portland faces uptempo opponents or when Simons shows strong recent form. Main risk is the thin margin between his average and the line, meaning even slight off nights derail the over. Best played as part of a correlated same-game parlay.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 8.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Anfernee Simons has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 15 of 28 home games (53.6%) while going under 13 times. His home three-point average of 3.36 makes exactly matches the typical betting line, creating a tight but profitable over trend.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean over on Anfernee Simons's three-pointers made at home, especially during favorable matchups. The 53.6% over rate and positive ROI provide a slight edge, but be selective and avoid betting large amounts given the thin margins involved.
What's Anfernee Simons's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Anfernee Simons averages exactly 3.36 three-pointers made in home games, which typically matches his betting line of 3.36. This perfect alignment means he's consistently meeting expectations rather than dramatically exceeding them, creating value through steady performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Anfernee Simons three-point overs at home when he's showing recent form (like his current four-game streak) or when Portland faces high-pace opponents. Avoid betting after poor shooting nights or against elite perimeter defenses that could disrupt his rhythm.