Anfernee Simons has been a steal prop disaster, hitting over just 20% of the time (2-8 record) while averaging 0.2 steals against a 0.6 line. This massive -0.4 differential represents one of the most reliable under trends in the NBA, currently riding a four-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
The Anfernee Simons steals under has become a money-printing machine, and the underlying factors suggest this trend has staying power. Simons is averaging just 0.2 steals per game over his last 10 contests, falling a staggering 0.4 steals short of his typical 0.6 line. This isn't random variance—it reflects Portland's defensive philosophy and Simons's role evolution. The Trail Blazers have increasingly asked Simons to focus on offensive creation and ball-handling duties, reducing his gambling opportunities on defense. His usage rate has climbed as Portland's primary offensive initiator, leaving less energy for aggressive steal attempts. The four-game under streak isn't a fluke—it's a pattern reflecting his reduced defensive intensity as offensive responsibilities mount. Portland's pace and defensive scheme also work against steal production, as they've prioritized limiting transition opportunities over creating turnovers. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the complete story: this line hasn't adjusted properly to Simons's current role. With no meaningful splits data suggesting situational variance, the under appears viable across all game contexts. The biggest risk would be a defensive scheme change or reduced offensive load, but Portland's current trajectory suggests neither is imminent.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Simons's 0.2 steal average creates a massive 0.4 cushion below the typical 0.6 line, while his current four-game under streak reflects sustainable role changes rather than temporary variance. The ideal conditions are any game where Portland maintains their current pace and Simons handles primary ball-handling duties. The main risk is a blowout scenario forcing garbage time lineup changes, but even then, his reduced defensive aggression makes the under viable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Anfernee Simons has hit the steals over in just 2 of his last 10 games (20% success rate), posting a dismal 2-8-0 record. This represents one of the most lopsided prop trends currently available in NBA betting markets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Steals last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Simons steals with high confidence. His 0.2 average creates a massive cushion below the 0.6 line, while his current role prioritizes offensive creation over defensive gambling, making this trend sustainable.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Steals last 10 games?
Simons is averaging just 0.2 steals over his last 10 games, a massive 0.4 steals below the typical 0.6 line. This differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and betting line in current NBA props.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Simons steals unders when Portland maintains normal rotations and he handles primary offensive duties. Avoid garbage time scenarios or games where defensive scheme changes might increase his steal opportunities through different positioning.