Anfernee Simons has been a rebounding disaster, hitting just 20% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal 2-8-0 record. The Trail Blazers guard is averaging 2.0 rebounds against a 2.6 line, creating a consistent 0.6-rebound gap that screams systematic underperformance.
Expert Analysis
Anfernee Simons's rebounding struggles reflect the classic guard trap where books haven't adjusted lines to match his actual role and effort level. At 2.0 rebounds per game against a 2.6 line, Simons is consistently failing to meet expectations by nearly a full rebound nightly. This isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance rooted in Portland's chaotic season and Simons's primary focus on offensive creation rather than crashing boards. Guards who prioritize getting back in transition and conserving energy for scoring rarely exceed rebounding expectations, especially when their team lacks defensive structure. The 5-game under streak within this sample shows remarkable consistency, suggesting the market hasn't caught up to Simons's actual rebounding reality. Portland's pace and defensive breakdowns often lead to long rebounds that favor bigger players, while Simons's 6'3" frame and offensive responsibilities keep him away from prime rebounding positions. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a market inefficiency that persists because casual bettors see a starting guard and assume he'll grab his share of boards. However, regression risk exists if Portland's rotations change or if Simons begins crashing harder late in games, though his current role suggests this trend has staying power.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Anfernee Simons's rebounding props represent one of the clearest market inefficiencies available, with the 2.0 average creating consistent value against inflated lines. Target this when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, as Simons's role and effort level on the boards remain unchanged. The primary risk is Portland dramatically altering rotations or Simons suddenly prioritizing rebounding over his offensive responsibilities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Rebounds prop record last 10 games?
Anfernee Simons has gone 2-8-0 on rebounds overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. This represents one of the worst over rates among starting guards, with unders providing a +52.7% ROI during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Rebounds last 10 games?
Bet UNDER on Anfernee Simons rebounds props with high confidence. His 2.0 average against typical 2.6 lines creates consistent value, supported by his offensive-focused role and Portland's defensive structure that limits his rebounding opportunities.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Rebounds last 10 games?
Anfernee Simons is averaging 2.0 rebounds over his last 10 games compared to the typical 2.6 line, creating a significant 0.6-rebound deficit. This gap represents systematic underperformance rather than temporary variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Anfernee Simons rebounds unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, particularly in games where Portland faces teams that rebound well or play at faster pace, limiting his opportunities to crash boards.