Anfernee Simons has delivered exceptional rebounding value at home, hitting overs at a 59.3% clip (16-11-0) with a +13.1% ROI. His 3.37 average significantly outpaces the typical 3.09 line, creating consistent value despite a recent two-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
The Trail Blazers' home environment appears to unlock Simons' rebounding potential in measurable ways. His 3.37 home average represents a meaningful 0.28 rebound edge over standard lines, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his enhanced glass work at Moda Center. This trend likely stems from Portland's pace advantages at home and Simons' increased comfort level in familiar surroundings, leading to better positioning and more aggressive rebounding. The 59.3% over rate demonstrates remarkable consistency across 27 games, indicating this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge. While the recent two-game under streak might concern casual bettors, it represents his longest cold stretch, actually reinforcing the overall pattern's strength. The +13.1% ROI on overs versus -22.2% on unders creates a clear directional bias that sharp bettors should exploit. Simons' role as Portland's primary perimeter scorer often puts him in position for long rebounds, and the home crowd energy may contribute to his enhanced effort on the boards. This trend shows no signs of meaningful regression, as the sample size provides statistical significance while the underlying factors remain constant.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Simons' home rebounding edge is statistically significant and profitable, but the recent under streak demands caution. The 0.28 average differential above typical lines provides clear value, especially when books set conservative numbers. Target games where Portland faces uptempo opponents or when Simons' line sits at 3.0 or below for maximum edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Rebounds prop record home games?
Simons is 16-11-0 on rebounds overs in home games, hitting at a 59.3% rate. This represents strong performance across 27 games with a +13.1% return on investment for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Rebounds home games?
Lean over on Simons' home rebounds props. His 3.37 average consistently beats the typical 3.09 line, though the recent two-game under streak suggests waiting for favorable numbers around 3.0.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Rebounds home games?
Simons averages 3.37 rebounds in home games, which is 0.28 above the typical 3.09 line. This differential has created consistent value for over bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Simons rebounds overs when his line is set at 3.0 or below in home games. The edge is strongest against uptempo opponents who create more rebounding opportunities.