Anfernee Simons shows a clear edge hitting the over on his points prop in away games, going 15-11-0 (57.7%) with a +10.1% ROI. His 22.35 average consistently outpaces the typical 21.81 line by half a point. This represents a sustainable edge worth targeting.
Expert Analysis
Simons demonstrates remarkable consistency as Portland's primary scoring threat on the road, where his usage rate naturally increases without the comfort of home-court rhythm. The 57.7% over rate isn't just statistical noise—it reflects his role as the Trail Blazers' go-to scorer in hostile environments where the team needs individual brilliance to stay competitive. His 22.35 scoring average in away games creates a meaningful 0.54-point cushion above typical lines, suggesting oddsmakers consistently undervalue his road scoring output. The +10.1% ROI on overs validates this isn't just volume—it's profitable volume. Portland's pace-heavy system amplifies Simons' scoring opportunities, particularly on the road where games often turn into shootouts. His ability to create his own shot becomes even more valuable away from home, where team offense can stagnate. The lack of extreme streaking (longest runs of 4 games either way) indicates steady performance rather than volatile hot-and-cold stretches. However, the sample size of 26 games demands respect—this edge exists but requires selective application rather than blind betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Simons' 57.7% over rate and positive ROI create a legitimate edge in away games where his scoring responsibility increases. The half-point average differential above typical lines provides cushion for variance. Target this when lines sit at 21.5 or below, avoiding inflated numbers after big performances. The main risk is Portland's young roster occasionally getting blown out early, limiting Simons' fourth-quarter scoring opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 19.5 | 20.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-10 | OPP | 21.5 | 32.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 22.5 | 14.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 20.5 | 30.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 21.5 | 27.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 21.5 | 28.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-12 | OPP | 21.5 | 26.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 20.5 | 17.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-23 | OPP | 17.5 | 21.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 19.5 | 18.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 16.5 | 25.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 21.5 | 19.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 22.5 | 30.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 24.5 | 25.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 23.5 | 30.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Points prop record away games?
Anfernee Simons has gone over his points prop in 15 of 26 away games (57.7%) with an under record of 11-15. His overs have generated a positive 10.1% ROI while unders show a -19.2% return, indicating clear directional value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Points away games?
Bet the over on Simons' points in away games. His 57.7% over rate and +10.1% ROI create a measurable edge, particularly when lines are set at 21.5 or below where his 22.35 average provides meaningful cushion.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Points away games?
Simons averages 22.35 points in away games compared to typical lines around 21.81, creating a favorable 0.54-point differential. This consistent gap above market expectations drives his strong over performance and positive ROI on road games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Simons points overs in away games when lines are 21.5 or lower, especially against up-tempo opponents. Avoid after big scoring performances when books inflate the number, and be cautious in potential blowout spots where fourth-quarter minutes could be limited.