Anfernee Simons shows marginal over value with a 52.8% hit rate (28-25-0) and +0.9% ROI on overs. The Trail Blazers guard averages 22.47 points against a 22.16 line, creating a modest 0.3-point edge. Lean Over with measured expectations.
Expert Analysis
Anfernee Simons presents a textbook case of slim but consistent value on the over. His 52.8% over rate across 53 games reflects the reality of Portland's offensive system, where Simons functions as a primary scoring option in a pace-friendly environment. The 0.3-point differential between his average (22.47) and typical line (22.16) suggests oddsmakers are pricing him accurately, but slightly conservatively. The current four-game over streak aligns with his season-long pattern of moderate over tendency, though regression risk exists given the narrow margins. Portland's developmental approach often leads to extended minutes for core players like Simons, particularly in competitive games where his shot volume increases. The +0.9% ROI on overs versus -9.9% on unders indicates a clear directional edge, though the modest returns suggest this isn't a high-conviction spot. Simons's scoring consistency stems from his role as Portland's primary perimeter threat, generating looks through both catch-and-shoot situations and self-created opportunities. The absence of significant split variations suggests his scoring output remains relatively stable across different game contexts, making this a steady but unspectacular over play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Anfernee Simons's 52.8% over rate and positive ROI create a modest but measurable edge worth exploiting. The 0.3-point cushion above typical lines provides sufficient margin for profit over time. Best conditions are games where Portland faces uptempo opponents or finds themselves in competitive contests requiring increased offensive output. Main risk is the narrow margins leaving little room for variance or line movement against your position.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 19.5 | 20.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 21.5 | 30.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-10 | OPP | 21.5 | 32.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 20.5 | 34.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 22.5 | 14.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 20.5 | 30.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 21.5 | 27.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 21.5 | 28.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-12 | OPP | 21.5 | 26.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 20.5 | 17.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 19.5 | 30.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 19.5 | 22.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 18.5 | 14.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-23 | OPP | 17.5 | 21.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 19.5 | 13.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Points prop record all games?
Anfernee Simons has hit the over on his Points prop in 28 of 53 games (52.8%) with 25 unders and no pushes. This translates to a +0.9% ROI on over bets versus -9.9% on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Points all games?
Bet the over on Anfernee Simons Points props. His 52.8% over rate and +0.9% ROI provide a measurable edge, while his 22.47 average consistently exceeds typical 22.16 lines by 0.3 points.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Points all games?
Anfernee Simons averages 22.47 points per game across 53 contests, which sits 0.3 points above his typical line of 22.16. This modest but consistent differential creates value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Anfernee Simons overs in uptempo games or competitive contests where Portland needs offensive production. His scoring volume increases when the Trail Blazers face pace-friendly opponents or require extended offensive output.