Anfernee Simons shows an extreme under bias on blocks props with one day rest, going under in 17 of 19 games (10.5% over rate). His 0.11 average sits 0.4 blocks below the typical 0.5 line, generating massive +70.8% ROI on unders. This represents a strong systematic edge.
Expert Analysis
Anfernee Simons's blocks prop with one day rest reveals one of the most lopsided trends in player props. His 0.11 blocks per game average represents a guard playing his natural position without defensive versatility. The 0.5 line appears inflated, likely set to balance action rather than reflect true probability. Simons's role as Portland's primary offensive initiator keeps him focused on perimeter defense and ball-handling rather than help defense where blocks occur. The consistency is remarkable - an 8-game under streak and only two overs in 19 attempts suggests this isn't random variance but structural mismatch. One day rest doesn't appear to impact his defensive positioning or aggression meaningfully, as his block rate remains consistently low regardless of energy levels. The sample size from December 2023 through March 2024 covers various opponents and game situations, strengthening the trend's reliability. Books haven't adjusted the line despite overwhelming under results, creating continued value. The extreme ROI differential (-79.9% over vs +70.8% under) indicates sharp money consistently hammers the under while recreational bettors chase the rare over. This trend shows no signs of regression as it aligns with Simons's fundamental role and skillset rather than temporary form.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 89.5% under rate combined with -0.4 average differential creates exceptional value that books haven't corrected. Simons's role as a perimeter-focused guard makes blocks inherently unlikely, and one day rest doesn't change his defensive positioning. The 8-game under streak reinforces the systematic nature of this edge. Risk lies only in potential line movement if books finally adjust, making current opportunities time-sensitive.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Blocks prop record 1 day rest?
Anfernee Simons has gone 2-17-0 on blocks overs with one day rest, hitting just 10.5% of overs across 19 games from December 2023 to March 2024, making this one of the most reliable under trends in player props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Blocks 1 day rest?
Bet the under with high confidence. Simons averages just 0.11 blocks with one day rest against a 0.5 line, creating a -0.4 differential that has produced +70.8% ROI on unders over 19 games.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Blocks 1 day rest?
Simons averages 0.11 blocks per game with one day rest, sitting 0.4 blocks below the standard 0.5 line. This massive gap explains why he's gone under in 17 of 19 games in this situation.
How reliable is this trend?
Target blocks unders when Simons has exactly one day rest, where he's 17-2 to the under. Avoid back-to-backs or extended rest where sample data is limited and the trend may not apply.