Anfernee Simons blocks under at home presents one of the strongest defensive prop edges in the NBA, hitting at a 94.4% clip (17-1-0) with an 80.3% ROI. The 6'1" guard averages just 0.06 blocks per home game against a 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.44 differential. This is a premium fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Anfernee Simons blocks under at home represents a structural mismatch between sportsbook pricing and basketball reality. At 6'1" and 181 pounds, Simons operates primarily as a perimeter scorer and secondary playmaker, rarely venturing into shot-blocking territory. His defensive positioning keeps him away from the rim, focusing on contesting jump shots rather than challenging drives. The 0.06 blocks per home game average tells the complete story - Simons simply doesn't generate blocks with any consistency. His longest under streak of 16 games demonstrates the sustainability of this trend, while his single over suggests the rare occurrence was likely fluky. The -0.44 differential between his average and the 0.5 line represents one of the largest edges available in player props. Portland's defensive scheme typically assigns rim protection duties to their frontcourt players, leaving Simons to focus on his offensive responsibilities. The home environment doesn't alter his defensive role or positioning, maintaining the structural reasons this trend persists. With an 89.4% loss rate on overs and 80.3% profit margin on unders, the math overwhelmingly favors continued under performance.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Anfernee Simons blocks under at home is a premium fade with exceptional historical performance and structural sustainability. The 94.4% hit rate combined with his defensive role and physical limitations creates a reliable edge. Best conditions are standard rotations against average offensive opponents. Main risk is garbage time or unusual defensive schemes, but the 16-game under streak suggests remarkable consistency even across varying game situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Blocks prop record home games?
Anfernee Simons has gone under 0.5 blocks in 17 of 18 home games (94.4% rate) with a 1-17-0 record. He averages just 0.06 blocks per home game, creating a massive -0.44 differential against the standard line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Blocks home games?
Bet under on Anfernee Simons blocks at home with high confidence. The 94.4% hit rate and 80.3% ROI make this one of the strongest defensive prop fades available, supported by his role and physical limitations.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Blocks home games?
Anfernee Simons averages 0.06 blocks per home game, significantly below the typical 0.5 line. This creates a -0.44 differential, representing one of the largest edges in player props due to structural positioning mismatches.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Anfernee Simons blocks under during regular rotations against standard offensive opponents. Avoid when Portland faces teams that force unusual defensive schemes, though his 16-game under streak suggests consistency across most situations.