Anfernee Simons shows a marginal 51.4% over rate on assists props with one day rest, hitting 18 of 35 attempts. His 4.89 average falls 0.24 assists short of typical lines around 5.13, creating a slight mathematical edge for unders despite the modest over frequency.
Expert Analysis
The Anfernee Simons assists trend with one day rest presents a fascinating case study in line efficiency versus hit rate dynamics. While Simons converts overs at a 51.4% clip across 35 games, his actual production consistently underwhelms the betting market's expectations. The 4.89 average against 5.13 lines represents a meaningful 4.7% shortfall that compounds over time. This disconnect likely stems from Portland's pace-dependent offensive system and Simons' natural scoring instincts overwhelming his playmaking responsibilities when legs are fresh. The Trail Blazers often push tempo after rest, which theoretically should boost assist opportunities, but Simons tends to hunt his own shot in these uptempo scenarios. His role as a primary scorer creates inherent tension with assist production, particularly when he feels physically optimal. The -7.3% ROI on unders suggests sharp money recognizes this pattern, though the modest sample size and recent coaching changes add volatility. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency of the underperformance rather than dramatic swings, indicating a systematic issue rather than random variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.24 assist shortfall against market lines creates legitimate value despite the 51.4% over rate. Simons' scoring-first mentality intensifies with fresh legs, consistently producing fewer assists than oddsmakers anticipate. Target this spot when Portland faces faster-paced opponents where Simons will prioritize his own offensive opportunities over distribution duties.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Anfernee Simons props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Anfernee Simons has gone over his assists prop 18 times in 35 games with one day rest, producing a 51.4% over rate. His 17 unders slightly outnumber the overs, creating a near-even split that masks underlying value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Assists 1 day rest?
Lean under on Anfernee Simons assists props with one day rest. His 4.89 average consistently falls short of typical 5.13 lines, and fresh legs tend to activate his scoring mentality over playmaking responsibilities.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Assists 1 day rest?
Anfernee Simons averages 4.89 assists with one day rest compared to typical betting lines around 5.13. This 0.24 assist differential represents a 4.7% shortfall that creates mathematical value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Anfernee Simons assists unders when Portland plays faster-paced opponents with one day rest. His scoring instincts intensify in uptempo games, and the consistent line value becomes most pronounced against teams that push pace.