Anfernee Simons' home assists prop presents a perfectly balanced 50% over rate across 28 games, but the -0.3 differential from his 4.96 average to typical 5.25 lines suggests consistent underperformance. With negative ROI on both sides and recent under momentum, this becomes a lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Anfernee Simons' home assists performance reveals a fascinating case study in market efficiency meeting player limitations. His 4.96 home average consistently trails the standard 5.25 line by 0.3 assists, indicating books may be overvaluing his playmaking in Portland's home environment. This isn't coincidental—Simons operates primarily as a scoring guard who creates his own offense rather than facilitating for others. At home, where Portland typically faces tighter defensive schemes and Simons gets more aggressive scoring looks, his assist opportunities naturally decrease. The perfectly balanced 50% over rate masks the underlying value in the under, as that -0.3 differential compounds over time. His current two-game under streak aligns with this season-long pattern of falling short of inflated lines. The Trail Blazers' pace and offensive system haven't fundamentally changed at home, making this trend more sustainable than random variance. Most tellingly, both betting sides show negative ROI, suggesting the market hasn't properly adjusted to Simons' true home assist ceiling. Portland's young roster and inconsistent offensive execution further limit his assist ceiling, as teammates struggle to convert the passes he does make.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.3 differential between Simons' 4.96 home average and typical 5.25 lines creates consistent value on the under, supported by his current two-game under streak. Target this when lines sit at 5.0 or higher, as Simons' score-first mentality at home limits playmaking opportunities. Main risk is an outlier performance against a pace-up opponent, but the season-long data supports sustainable underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 1.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Assists prop record home games?
Anfernee Simons has gone over his assists prop in exactly 14 of 28 home games this season, posting a perfectly balanced 50% over rate. However, his 4.96 home average consistently trails typical 5.25 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Assists home games?
Lean under on Simons' home assists props. His 4.96 average runs 0.3 assists below standard lines, creating consistent value on the under. Target when lines are 5.0 or higher for optimal value.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Assists home games?
Simons averages 4.96 assists in home games, which sits 0.29 assists below the typical 5.25 line. This differential has persisted across 28 games, suggesting books overvalue his home playmaking ability.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Simons assists unders when lines reach 5.0 or higher at home, especially against slower-paced opponents. His score-first approach and Portland's young roster create the most favorable under conditions in familiar home settings.