Anfernee Simons shows a modest edge on assists overs in away games, hitting 53.8% with a 14-12 record over 26 games. His 5.27 average exceeds the typical 5.0 line by 0.3 assists, though the +2.8% ROI suggests only marginal value. Lean Over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Anfernee Simons's away assists trend reflects his elevated role as Portland's primary facilitator on the road, where the Trail Blazers often face tougher defensive schemes that require more ball movement. The 5.27 average against a 5.0 line provides consistent value, though the modest 0.3 differential suggests this edge isn't massive. The 53.8% over rate indicates mild predictive value, but the relatively low ROI warns against blind backing. Simons tends to rack up assists when Portland plays from behind, forcing more aggressive offensive sets that create passing opportunities. His assist numbers correlate strongly with game pace and opponent defensive rating, as faster games and weaker defenses naturally inflate his playmaking chances. The Trail Blazers' inconsistent roster has made Simons the de facto floor general in many road contests, particularly when facing playoff-caliber teams that force Portland into more structured offensive possessions. However, blowout losses can cap his minutes and assist opportunities, while games against elite defenses may limit overall offensive flow. The trend appears sustainable given Simons's central role in Portland's offense, but regression toward the mean remains possible as books adjust lines based on his consistent slight overperformance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Simons's 5.27 road average consistently beats the standard 5.0 line, and his facilitator role intensifies in hostile environments where Portland needs more ball movement. Target games against mid-tier defenses with projected competitive scoring, where pace stays elevated and Simons sees full minutes. Main risk is blowout scenarios limiting his fourth-quarter opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Assists prop record away games?
Anfernee Simons is 14-12 on Assists props away games, hitting the over 53.8% of the time with an average of 5.27 AST vs a 5.0 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Assists away games?
This is close to a coin flip at 53.8% overs. Neither side shows a consistent edge — look for line value or additional context before betting.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Assists away games?
Anfernee Simons averages 5.27 AST away games across 26 games, which is 0.3 above the typical prop line of 5.0.
How reliable is this trend?
With 26 games in the sample, this trend has moderate confidence. The moderate sample provides a useful signal, but expect some variance as more games are added.