Anfernee Simons presents a perfectly balanced assists market with 28-26-0 over/under record (51.9% overs) and 5.11 average against 5.13 line. The minimal -0.02 differential and negative ROI on both sides suggest efficient pricing with no clear edge.
Expert Analysis
Anfernee Simons's assists market represents one of the most efficiently priced props in basketball, with his 5.11 average sitting just 0.02 assists below the typical 5.13 line. This microscopic differential, combined with the nearly even 28-26 split, indicates oddsmakers have found the sweet spot on his playmaking output. The negative ROI on both sides (-1.0% over, -8.1% under) confirms what the raw numbers suggest: this market offers little exploitable value. Simons operates primarily as Portland's secondary playmaker behind Damian Lillard when healthy, creating a consistent but capped ceiling for his assist production. His role as a scoring-first guard limits his floor-running opportunities, keeping his assist numbers remarkably stable around the 5-assist mark. The balanced streaking pattern (longest runs of just 4 games in either direction) further reinforces the stability of his playmaking role. Without significant injury news affecting Portland's backcourt hierarchy or pace-of-play shifts, Simons's assist production appears locked into this narrow band. The market's efficiency here is actually noteworthy—it suggests oddsmakers have accounted for all relevant variables affecting his assist ceiling and floor, leaving little room for informed speculation.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. This represents textbook market efficiency where the house edge eliminates any meaningful profit opportunity. The 0.02 differential between average and line, combined with negative ROI on both sides, creates a coin-flip proposition with built-in juice working against bettors. Only consider action with significant lineup or pace news.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Assists prop record all games?
Anfernee Simons has gone over his assists prop in 28 of 54 games (51.9%) with 26 unders and no pushes. His record shows remarkable balance, indicating an efficiently priced market with minimal exploitable edges.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Assists all games?
Pass on Anfernee Simons assists props. The 5.11 average versus 5.13 line creates no meaningful edge, while negative ROI on both sides (-1.0% over, -8.1% under) confirms the house advantage eliminates profit potential.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Assists all games?
Anfernee Simons averages 5.11 assists per game against a typical line of 5.13, creating just a 0.02 differential. This microscopic gap indicates oddsmakers have precisely calibrated his playmaking output expectations around his secondary role.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Anfernee Simons assists props unless significant lineup changes affect Portland's backcourt. The market's efficiency leaves no room for profit without major injury news or pace-of-play shifts that could alter his playmaking opportunities.